Estimation and Management of Drought Situation by Using Pattern Classification and furry Infererc

这几年我们遭受了严重的干旱，这是由于排水线和需水量模式的差异造成的。水文曲线基本上是通过径流分析、降水分析和地质地理条件得到的。虽然降水具有复杂的成分，但根据其特征，雨量图和水流图通常由很少的模式组成。因此，在本项目中，我们研究了干旱严重程度的估计方法和干旱控制的实时操作。综上所述，得到以下结果：1)ISODATA方法从低流量的角度出发，利用所提出的估计函数将历史水文线划分为合理的模式；Ii)利用网格型多层过程建立了含融雪的长期径流模型。通过模糊生成程序对假设情景下的流量进行了模拟。利用NOAA卫星数据的判别函数对积雪面积进行了识别。iii)通过成功率的概念估计了分类水文干旱事件发生的概率。此外，还将干旱特性表述为可靠性和弹性。4)在水库抗旱实时调度中，通过对专家系统的比较，并根据操作人员的经验，提出了相应的操作流程。v)在特殊操作规则条件下，计算各分类航道在各控制时间阶段的目标储存量。(6)模糊推理理论根据分类水文曲线给出了实际目标库存量，即下一个控制时间阶段与当前干旱相似的放水量。

We have been suffering from heavy drought for these years, which was caused by difference between patterns of discharge hydrograph and water demand. Basically hydrographs are gained through the run-off analysis applied to procipitation, and geological and geographical conditions. Though precipitations are occurred with the complex components, hyetographs and hydrographs consist of typically few patterns according to their characteristics. Therefore in this project, We have investigated the estimation methods of drought severity and real-time operation for drought control. To sum up, the following results were gained:i)ISODATA method classified historical hydrographs into the reasonable patterns with the proposed estimation function from the view point of low flow.ii)long-term run-off model with snow-melt was formulated by using mesh-typed multi-layer process. Discharge was simulated through fuzzy generation procedures under the conditions of assumed scenarios. The snow cover area was identified with discrimination function of satellite data of NOAA.iii)Probability of drought event for classified hydrograph was estimated through the concept of success percent. Moreover, the drought characteristics was formulated as reliability and resiliency.iv)In the real-time operation of reservoir for drought, the operational procedure was proposed by comparing the expert system and following the experience of operator.v)Target storage volume at each control time stage was calculated for each classified hydrograph under the condition of special operation rule.vi)Fuzzy inference theory gave the actual target storage volume in other words, the release at next control time stage with similarities of present drought against classified hydrographs.