Research for prediction of cervical lymph node metastasis in tongue cancer using fuzzy inference

本研究的目的是预测舌癌的淋巴转移。研究对象为1971年至1990年间在我科就诊的137例舌鳞癌患者。我们首先使用多变量分析，然后使用模糊推理来评估这些方法预测淋巴结转移的准确性。根据卡方检验结果和相关矩阵，选择T类、N类、角质化、有丝分裂和侵袭方式作为多因素分析的参数。在137个样本中，104个通过多变量分析被正确识别。为了利用模糊推理进行预测，首先将患者分为两组：手术治疗组和放疗组。采用肿瘤大小、角化程度和侵袭方式三项指标进行分析。然后，“如果-然后规则”应用于两组中的每一组。137例诊断准确率为78.1%，敏感性为69.0%，特异性为84.8%。这些数字超过了多变量分析所获得的精度。模糊推理对于预测淋巴结转移似乎是有用的。

The purpose of this study was to predict lymph node metastasis in tongue cancer. The subjects were 137 patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the tongue who had been treated at our department during the 20-year period from 1971 through 1990. We first used multivariate analysis and then fuzzy inference to assess the accuracy of these methods for predicting lymph node metastasis. Based on the results of the chi-square test and a correlation matrix, T category, N category, keratinization, mitosis and mode of invasion were selected as parameters for multivariate analysis. Among the 137, 104 were correctly identified by this multivariated analysis. For the prediction using fuzzy inference, the patients were first divided into two groups : those treated surgically and those given radiotherapy. Three items, i.e., tumor size, keratinization and mode of invasion were used for analysis. Then, an "If-Then rule" was applied to each of the two groups. The accurate rate of the 137 cases was 78.1%, sensitivity was 69.0%, and specificity was 84.8%. These figures exceeded the accuracy obtained by the multivariate analyses. Fuzzy inference appears to be useful for predicting lymph node metastasis.