The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Uncertainty

全球不确定性的宏观经济影响

• 批准号: DP160102281
• 负责人: Prof Efrem Castelnuovo
• 金额: $ 21.36万
• 依托单位: The University of Melbourne
• 依托单位国家: 澳大利亚
• 项目类别: Discovery Projects
• 财政年份: 2016
• 资助国家: 澳大利亚
• 起止时间: 2016-01-01 至 2019-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://dataportal.arc.gov.au/RGS/Web/Grants/DP160102281
• 关键词: Macroeconomic; Effects; Global; Uncertainty

This project aims to estimate the first global uncertainty index to enable Australian policymakers to design policies to efficiently manage global uncertainty shocks and limit the recessionary effects of such shocks. Uncertainty is a crucial driver of household and business consumption and investment decisions and, therefore, countries' business cycles. A global uncertainty index would aim to identify the role of global uncertainty as a driver of Australia's business cycle fluctuations, to understand if this role has become more relevant in recent historical periods due to globalisation, and to understand if the effects of fluctuations in global uncertainty have been more severe in economic recessions. The intended outcome of the project is to provide policy-makers with key inputs to design policies able to limit the severity of recessions and lift Australia's growth.

该项目旨在估计第一个全球不确定性指数，使澳大利亚决策者能够制定政策，有效管理全球不确定性冲击，并限制这种冲击的衰退影响。不确定性是家庭和企业消费和投资决定的关键驱动因素，因此也是国家商业周期的关键驱动因素。全球不确定性指数旨在确定全球不确定性作为澳大利亚商业周期波动驱动因素的作用，以了解由于全球化，这种作用在最近的历史时期是否变得更加相关，并了解全球不确定性波动的影响是否在经济衰退中更加严重。该项目的预期成果是为政策制定者提供关键投入，以制定能够限制衰退严重程度和促进澳大利亚增长的政策。