The Macroeconomic Effects of Global Uncertainty

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

This project aims to estimate the first global uncertainty index to enable Australian policymakers to design policies to efficiently manage global uncertainty shocks and limit the recessionary effects of such shocks. Uncertainty is a crucial driver of household and business consumption and investment decisions and, therefore, countries' business cycles. A global uncertainty index would aim to identify the role of global uncertainty as a driver of Australia's business cycle fluctuations, to understand if this role has become more relevant in recent historical periods due to globalisation, and to understand if the effects of fluctuations in global uncertainty have been more severe in economic recessions. The intended outcome of the project is to provide policy-makers with key inputs to design policies able to limit the severity of recessions and lift Australia's growth.