Intra-Industry Trade and Strategic Trade Policies under the OligopolyMarkets Post-War Development of japanese Automobile Industry

战后日本汽车工业的发展似乎与日本经济的发展同步。特别是日本的第一大贸易伙伴美国与日本在贸易自由化、自主出口限制等与汽车产业密切相关的问题上发生了经济矛盾。过去，关于汽车行业的研究文献较多，如母公司与分包商之间的分包关系、具体企业的数据分析等。然而，几乎没有人能提供一个一致的、综合的模型，从实证的角度来解释战后日本汽车工业的发展。正如我在报告中所述，第一章提供了战后日本汽车工业发展的描述性特征。第二章给出了一个基于博弈论方法的简单统一模型。第三章扩展了第二章给出的基本模型，并使其能够用于实证目的。第四章进行了实证研究，得出了许多有趣的结果：(1)20世纪60年代末，日本汽车工业的共谋率上升，同时垄断倾向上升。在贸易自由化之前，日本汽车产业似乎拥有足够的竞争力来对抗美国汽车制造商。(2) 20世纪70年代，美国市场的竞争比日本更激烈。(3)研究了自愿出口限制的分析，并给出了几种战略贸易政策的计算方法。

It seems that the post-war development of Japanese automobile industry has paced with that of the Japanese economy. In particular, the USA,the giggest trade partner for Japan, and Japan met economic conflicts such as trade liberalization, voluntary export restraints, among others, which were closely related to their automobile industry. In the past, there are much literature treating the automobile industry, such as subcontract relation between parent firm and subcontractors, data analysis on specific firms, and so on. However, there is almost none to supply a consistent and synthetic model, which can explain the post-war development of the Japanese autombile industry from the empirical standpoint. As stated in my Report, Chapter 1 provides the descriptive features of post-war development of the Japanese automobile industry. Chapter 2 presents a simple unified model, based on game-theoretic approach. Chaplter 3 extends the basi modelgiven in Chapter 2 and enables to use it for empirical purpose. Chapter 4 conducts empirical work and derives many interesting results : (1)in late 1960's, the rates of collusion in the Japanese automobile industry were increased and at the same time monpolistic tendency has risen. Just before trade liberalization, Japanese automobile industry seems to possess enough competitive power against US auto makers.(2)in 1970's the US market was more competitive than Japan. (3)We investigated The analysis of voluntary export restraints and showed the method to calcurate several strategic trade policies.