A Theory of Plausibility

合理性理论

• 批准号: 444804884
• 负责人: Professor Dr. Hans Rott
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Theoretische Philosophie
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 财政年份: 2020
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2019-12-31 至 2021-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/444804884?language=en
• 关键词: Theory; Plausibility

The traditional problem of information scarcity calls for methods of defeasible reasoning (default reasoning, "non-monotonic" reasoning). The more recent problem of information overload, which has become particularly pressing in our "post-truth era", calls for methods for the rational revision of beliefs and opinions. I want to show that a theory of plausibility offers the resources that are needed to cope with both the problem of information scarcity and the problem of information overload. I aim at putting "plausibility" on the map of fundamental philosophical terms.The intended monograph aims at developing a comprehensive philosophical theory of plausibility that unifies a model for beliefs and a model for expectations within a single mode of representation. It covers, among other things,(i) the representation of beliefs and belief states;(ii) the philosophy underlying defeasible reasoning and belief revision, interpreting plausibility as doxastic preference;(iii) rational `doxastic choices' in the face of imperfect discrimination (indistinguishability, negligibility), incomparability (incommensurability, multi-dimensionality) and context effects;(iv) reflections on the relation between qualitative representations of cognitive states and quantitative representations as well as their dynamics.The approach of the project is decidedly qualitative; it covers categorical belief and categorical expectation as well as comparative strengths of belief and expectation. However, quantitative representations (probabilities, rankings) will also be discussed that help us understand the status of important principles of the qualitative side.

信息稀缺的传统问题需要可废止推理的方法（默认推理，“非单调”推理）。最近的信息超载问题在我们的“后真相时代”变得尤为紧迫，需要合理修正信念和观点的方法。 我想表明，合理性理论提供了解决信息稀缺问题和信息过载问题所需的资源。我的目标是将“合理性”放在基本哲学术语的地图上。预期​​的专着旨在发展一种全面的合理性哲学理论，将信念模型和期望模型统一在单一的表示模式中。除其他外，它涵盖了（i）信念和信念状态的表征；（ii）可废止推理和信念修正背后的哲学，将合理性解释为信念偏好；（iii）面对不完美歧视（不可区分性、可忽略性）、不可比性（不可通约性、多维性）和情境效应时的理性“信念选择”；（iv）反思 关于认知状态的定性表征与定量表征及其动态之间的关系。该项目的方法显然是定性的；它涵盖了绝对信念和绝对期望以及信念和期望的相对优势。然而，定量表示（概率、排名）也将被讨论，以帮助我们理解定性方面重要原则的地位。