A Theory of Plausibility

传统的信息稀缺问题需要可否定推理方法（默认推理，“非单调”推理）。最近的信息超载问题在我们的“后真相时代”变得尤为紧迫，它要求我们找到理性修正信仰和观点的方法。我想说明的是，合理性理论提供了解决信息稀缺问题和信息过载问题所需的资源。我的目标是把“合理性”放在基本哲学术语的地图上。该专著旨在发展一种全面的似是而非的哲学理论，该理论在单一的表征模式中统一了信念模型和期望模型。除其他外，它包括：(i)信念和信念状态的表征；（ii）可否定性推理和信念修正背后的哲学，将合理性解释为自相矛盾的偏好；（iii）面对不完全歧视（不可区分性、可忽略性）、不可比较性（不可通约性、多维性）和语境效应时的理性“随机选择”；（iv）对认知状态的定性表征与定量表征之间的关系及其动态的反思。这个项目的方法绝对是定性的；它包括范畴信念和范畴期望，以及信念和期望的比较优势。然而，定量表示（概率，排名）也将被讨论，以帮助我们理解定性方面的重要原则的地位。

The traditional problem of information scarcity calls for methods of defeasible reasoning (default reasoning, "non-monotonic" reasoning). The more recent problem of information overload, which has become particularly pressing in our "post-truth era", calls for methods for the rational revision of beliefs and opinions. I want to show that a theory of plausibility offers the resources that are needed to cope with both the problem of information scarcity and the problem of information overload. I aim at putting "plausibility" on the map of fundamental philosophical terms.The intended monograph aims at developing a comprehensive philosophical theory of plausibility that unifies a model for beliefs and a model for expectations within a single mode of representation. It covers, among other things,(i) the representation of beliefs and belief states;(ii) the philosophy underlying defeasible reasoning and belief revision, interpreting plausibility as doxastic preference;(iii) rational `doxastic choices' in the face of imperfect discrimination (indistinguishability, negligibility), incomparability (incommensurability, multi-dimensionality) and context effects;(iv) reflections on the relation between qualitative representations of cognitive states and quantitative representations as well as their dynamics.The approach of the project is decidedly qualitative; it covers categorical belief and categorical expectation as well as comparative strengths of belief and expectation. However, quantitative representations (probabilities, rankings) will also be discussed that help us understand the status of important principles of the qualitative side.