Theoretical and Empirical Research on Business Cycles and Construction of Business Judgment Models

本研究课题以经济周期的判断为目标，特别是以经济周期转折点的预测为中心。从项目开始以来，分为（A）经济周期的理论分析、（B）日本经济的数据分析、（C）经济指标的构建3个小组，由研究者自行决定属于哪一个小组。每个小组都经常举行研究会议，直到几个月内举行一次更大的小组间会议。所有研究人员每年至少举行两次最大的会议。除了每个研究人员的个人研究成果外，本研究项目作为一个整体产生了以下联合出版物：1. ASAKO，K.和S.FUKUDA编辑，《经济周期与经济预测》，东京大学出版社，2003年7月。ed.，“微观异质性与宏观经济”，财务省《金融评论》2005年8月第78期。3.《经济周期论》，《日本研究评论月刊》2004年12月以来共20期。和T.Miyagawa编辑，《现代经济周期：理论与证据》，东京大学出版社，即将出版，第1册。由19名研究人员的13篇文章组成，它代表了项目前半期的主要研究成果。第二章.收录了12位研究者的6篇文章，内容涉及在日本宏观经济的宏观经济表现下，经济主体的异质性或地方经济的异质性最近变得明显。系列3.由20篇短文组成，每篇短文都很容易解释每个研究者对商业周期的研究成果。第四册。是一份即将出版的出版物，其中载有26名研究人员的13篇文章和6条评论。

This research project has been aiming at the business cycle judgment centering especially on the forecast of the turning points of business cycles. Since the start of the project, three subgroups have been organized, which include (A) theoretical analyses of business cycles, (B) data analyses of the Japanese economy, and (C) construction of business indicators, and each investigator decides to which of them he or she belongs. Each subgroup has frequently held research meetings till bigger inter-subgroup meetings are held once in a few months. The biggest meetings of all investigators are held at least twice in a year.Besides each investigator's individual research outputs, this research project as a whole has produced the following joint publications :1.ASAKO, K. and S.FUKUDA eds., Business Cycles and Business Forecast, University of Tokyo Press, July 2003.2.ASAKO, K. ed., "Micro Heterogeneity and Japanese Macroeconomy," Financial Review, Ministry of Finance, Special Issue No.78, August 2005.3.Series : Talking of Business Cycles, Monthly Japan Research Review, 20 issues since December 2004.4.ASAKO, K. and T.MIYAGAWA eds., Modern Business Cycles : Theory and Evidence, University of Tokyo Press, forthcoming.Book 1. consists of 13 articles by 19 investigators and it represents the main research outputs in the first half of the project term. Special Issue 2. includes 6 articles by 12 investigators concerning the heterogeneity of economic agents or of local economies that is becoming apparent lately underneath the macroeconomic performance of the Japanese macroeconomy. Series 3. consists of 20 short essays, each being easy explanation of each investigator's research output on business cycles. Book 4. is a forthcoming publication of the main research outputs in the second half of the project term and it contains 13 articles and 6 comments by 26 investigators in total.