Varieties of Democratic Regimes and the Role of Democratic Values in Their Long-term Endurance

该研究项目结合了理论、定量和案例研究，以验证一个基本假设，即民主政权能够长期存在的一个基本条件是公民通过冲突和镇压的经历了解民主程序的重要性或必然性。关于民主规范和宪政制度的理论呈现出各种各样的民主形象，从熊彼特的民选领导人民主观到公众参与的协商民主。这些理论或多或少的共同点是，民主价值被认为是通过人民参与审议和决策而形成的。这是一个“积极学习”理论。我们的定量分析检验了“积极学习”和“消极学习”假设。后者是我们项目的主要假设，根据该假设，对民主的欣赏源于对冲突和代表经验的消极学习。我们的分析表明，“消极学习”效应在拉丁美洲尤为明显，而非洲国家则被分为两组：一组是“消极学习”效应，另一组是“积极学习”效应。但非洲的模式并不像拉丁美洲那样清晰。亚洲民主承诺的本质就更不清楚了。造成这种模棱两可的原因之一是，亚洲和非洲仍然有许多不民主的国家，在这些国家，对民主程序的真正承诺与仅仅期望一个更美好的未来是无法区分的。此外，促进民主持久的因素可能与促进向民主过渡的因素不同。案例研究表明，“积极学习”和“消极学习”的效果根据每个国家不同的社会和政治分裂结构而有所不同。然而，总的来说，我们的研究成功地证明了关注“消极学习”的基本假设与其他现有的关于民主耐力的假设一样有效。少

This research project combined theoretical, quantitative, and case studies to verify the basic hypothesis that a fundamental condition enabling the long-term endurance of democratic regimes is citizens' learning, through their experience of conflict and repression, of the importance or inevitability of democratic procedures. Theories on the norms of democracy and constitutional regimes present various images of democracy, from Shumpeter's view of democracy by elected leaders to deliberative democracy participated by the general public. What is more or less common in these theories is that democratic values are regarded as being formed through people's participation in deliberation and decision. This is a "positive learning" theory. Our quantitative analysis examined both "positive learning" and "negative learning" hypotheses. The latter is the major hypothesis of our project according to which appreciation of democracy stems from a negative learning of experiences of conflict and repre … More ssion. Our analysis shows that "negative learning" effects are notably observed in Latin America while African countries are divided into two groups : one with "negative learning" effects and the other with "positive learning" effects. But the pattern in Africa is not as clear as in Latin America. Even less clear is the nature of democratic commitment in Asia. One of the reasons for this ambiguity is that Asia and Africa still contain many undemocratic countries where real commitment to democratic procedures is indistinguishable from mere expectation of a better future. In addition, factors that facilitate endurance of democracy may not be the same as ones that foster transition to democracy. Case studies show that effects of "positive learning" and "negative, learning" diverge according to different structures of social and political cleavage in each country. As a whole, however, our study successfully demonstrated that the basic hypothesis focusing on "negative learning" is no less valid than other existing hypotheses on democratic endurance. Less