A Comparative Study on the Conditions of Democratic Consolidation

这项研究提出了一个假设，即解释民主政权长期存在的最根本因素是，人们通过长期的冲突或镇压的创伤性经历，了解到遵守民主程序的重要性或必要性，尽管意识到这些程序不一定满足他们的偏好。此外，我们建议考虑促进或阻碍民主学习的结构性（国内和国际）和制度性因素。这一理论框架可以被称为“结构-建构主义方法”，因为它强调在一定的结构和制度背景下形成的民主规范。智利和阿根廷的情况证实了在高度镇压的军事政权下改变社会规范的重要性。但是，它也强调了社会结构的转变降低了左派势力的动员能力，并有助于右派势力接受民主程序。非洲的情况也显示了结构和体制因素的重要性，尽管在这些情况下，它们阻碍而不是促进民主的持久。许多非洲国家陷入了民族冲突与国家结构薄弱相辅相成的恶性循环。最近在乌克兰发生的事件是一个大规模对抗可以导致民主化的例子，尽管目前还不清楚新的民主政权能否长期存在。东南亚的案例表明，冲突的重要性随着时间的推移而变化。那里的民主成为现实，就像1992年之后的泰国一样，只是在民主被视为缓解而不是加剧冲突的时候。相反，韩国的民主化与其说是社会规范的转变，不如说是威权主义领导人在矛盾的情况下理性选择的结果。尽管大陆和台湾之间的冲突也与促使专制领导人妥协有关，但台湾与韩国有理性选择相关的方面。少

This study presents the hypothesis that the most fundamental factor explaining the long-term endurance of democratic regimes is that people learn, through long and traumatic experiences of conflicts or repression, the importance or necessity of conforming to democratic procedures though being aware that these procedures do not necessarily satisfy their preferences. In addition, we propose to consider structural (both domestic and international) and institutional factors that facilitate or obstruct the democratic learning. This theoretical framework can be called a "structural-constructivist approach" since it emphasizes the democratic norms shaped under certain structural and institutional context. The case of Chile and Argentina confirms the importance of the change of social norms under highly repressive military regimes. However, it also emphasizes that a transformation of social structure lowered leftist forces' capability of mobilization and contributed to rightist forces' accepta … More nce of democratic procedures. The African cases also reveal the importance of structural and institutional factors, though, in these cases, they impede, not facilitate, democratic endurance. Many African countries fell into a vicious circle in which ethnic conflicts and weak state structure reinforce each other. The recent event in Ukraine is a case in which a large-scale confrontation can lead to democratization although it is not yet clear if the new democratic regime can survive for long. The Southeast Asian case demonstrates that the significance of conflicts changes over time. Democracy there became a reality, like in Thailand after 1992, only when democracy came to be regarded as alleviating rather than precipitating conflicts. In contrast, Korea experienced democratization as the result of a rational choice by authoritarian leaders within a conflictive situation rather than the transformation of social norms. Taiwan shares the rational-choice-related aspect with Korea although the conflict between the Chinese and the Taiwanese was also relevant in inducing the authoritarian leaders to compromise. Less