Construction of the foundations of statistical earthquake prediction research

统计地震预测研究基础的构建

• 批准号: 20240027
• 负责人: OGATA Yosihiko
• 金额: $ 26.12万
• 依托单位: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (A)
• 财政年份: 2008
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2008 至 2010
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-20240027/
• 关键词: ETASモデル; 地震活動静穏化・活発化; クーロン破壊ストレス; GPS測地データ; 階層ベイズ時空間ETASモデル; 統計地震学; 地震予測; 時空間ETASモデル; BPTモデル; GPS測地時系列; ベイズ法; 相対的活発化・静穏化現象; クーロン破壊ストレス変化; 前駆的非地震性すべり; GPS基線系列; 速度・状態摩擦法則; 点過程解析用ソフトウェア; Brownian Passae Timeモデル

発音に基づく入力を有効にするWe established a method of analysis that can detect and test the quiescence or activation, relative to the predicted seismic activity using the ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence) related models. We studied spatial patterns of deviations of seismicity from the forecast of seismic activity, and demonstrated the relationship between the crustal stress changes due to aseismic slip in the fault. Deviation of such seismic activity may be useful as a sensitive sensor of changes in crustal strain, and can be verified the consistency with the crustal deformation by GPS data and these phenomena. The results urged further operational studies to elucidate processes of earthquake precursor.

We established a method of analysis that can detect and test the quiescence or activation, relative to the predicted seismic activity using the ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence) related models. We studied spatial patterns of deviations of seismicity from the forecast of seismic activity, and demonstrated the relationship between the crustal stress changes due to aseismic slip in the fault. Deviation of such seismic activity may be useful as a sensitive sensor of changes in crustal strain, and can be verified the consistency with the crustal deformation by GPS data and these phenomena. The results urged further operational studies to elucidate processes of earthquake precursors.

项目成果

Identification and estimation of superposed Neyman-Scott spatial cluster processes

叠加的 Neyman-Scott 空间聚类过程的识别和估计

• DOI: 10.1007/s10463-013-0431-z
• 发表时间: 2014
• 期刊: Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics
• 影响因子: 1
• 作者: Tanaka;U. and Ogata;Y.
• 通讯作者: Y.

地震活動異常と地殻変動異常と前駆的非地震性すべり

地震活动异常、地壳形变异常、前兆地震滑移

• 发表时间: 2008
• 作者: Park JH;Ishikawa-Takata K;Tanaka S;Hikihara Y;Ohkawara K;Watanabe S;Miyachi M;Morita A;Aiba N;Tabata I.;尾形良彦
• 通讯作者: 尾形良彦

Recent destructive inland earthquakes off major active faults : Implications for future updates of the seismic hazard map in Japan (招待講演)

最近主要活动断层发生的破坏性内陆地震：对日本地震灾害图未来更新的影响（特邀演讲）

• 发表时间: 2008
• 作者: Toda;Shinji
• 通讯作者: Shinji

Foreshock statistics in Italy

意大利前震统计

• 发表时间: 2010
• 作者: Marzocchi;Warner
• 通讯作者: Warner

Uncertainties of Parameter Estimates in Earthquake Clustering Models

地震聚类模型中参数估计的不确定性

• 发表时间: 2010
• 作者: Wang;Qi
• 通讯作者: Qi