Construction of the foundations of statistical earthquake prediction research

発音に基づく入力を有効にするWe established a method of analysis that can detect and test the quiescence or activation, relative to the predicted seismic activity using the ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence) related models. We studied spatial patterns of deviations of seismicity from the forecast of seismic activity, and demonstrated the relationship between the crustal stress changes due to aseismic slip in the fault. Deviation of such seismic activity may be useful as a sensitive sensor of changes in crustal strain, and can be verified the consistency with the crustal deformation by GPS data and these phenomena. The results urged further operational studies to elucidate processes of earthquake precursor.

発音に基づく入力を有効にするWe established a method of analysis that can detect and test the quiescence or activation, relative to the predicted seismic activity using the ETAS(epidemic type aftershock sequence) related models. We studied spatial patterns of deviations of seismicity from the forecast of seismic activity, and demonstrated the relationship between the crustal stress changes due to aseismic slip in the fault. Deviation of such seismic activity may be useful as a sensitive sensor of changes in crustal strain, and can be verified the consistency with the crustal deformation by GPS data and these phenomena. The results urged further operational studies to elucidate processes of earthquake precursor.