Construction of space-time statistical models for seismicity and stress changes

地震活动和应力变化时空统计模型的构建

• 批准号: 11680334
• 负责人: OGATA Yosihiko
• 金额: $ 2.24万
• 依托单位: The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1999
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1999 至 2001
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-11680334/
• 关键词: Delauray tesselation (2D,3D); Relative guiescence; Seismic gaps; Aftershock seguence; Probabilistic forecast; Low-freguency electrical signals; Precursory aseismic slip; Space-time point-process wodels; ETASモデル; 時空間ETASモデル; クローンの破壊基準; 相対的静穏化

(1) Increased probability of large earthquakes near aftershock reions with relative quiescence By appiyin the ETAS model, aftershock sequences in Japau during the last century are descriminated whether they decayed normally or changed to become quiet relative to the model Then it is shown that the reiative quiescence is a helpful factor to forecast whether or not a large event is more likely to follow within 6 years in the neighborhood (say, within a distance of 200km) of the initial event.(2) Bayesian hierchical spaee-time ETAS model and detection of relative quiescenceA space-time point-process model is specified in which earthquake intenshy is mqdeiled as a functlon of previous activity where the parameters are further considered to be functions ofspatial locations (but not time) represented by tinear interpolation over a tessellation based on observed locations of earthquakes. We detect the temporal deviation of the actual seisrnicity rate from that of the modeiled occurrence rate. … More Thus we showed a number of zones where temporal deviation from the fitted model, with quiet periods, occurred before latge earthquakes.(3) Qualitative study on the relation between the relative quiescence and precursory aseismic slip We have shown a number of examples such that, assuming aseismic siip within a fault of forthcoming large event, subregions where aftershocks indicate the relative qLLiescence correspond to the shadow of the Coulomb stress changes.(2) Other results(A) The maximum likelihood procedure for the Vere-Jones' trigger model is impiemeted to for expioratory analysis of earthquake clusters. (B)'The stochastic declustering aigorithm is proposed and demonstrated by using the space-time ETAS modeis. (C) We demonstrated statistical confirmation of a relationship between excitation of the low-frequency electric fietd and magnitude M>=4 earthquakes in a 300km radius region around Beij ing, by making use of the Lin-Lin point process model. (D) Aftershock sequence of acoustic emissions is successfully modelled to detect the causal relationship with earth-tide stress. Less

(1)利用ETAS模型描述了日本近世纪余震序列相对于模型是正常衰减还是向平静方向转变，从而表明相对平静是预测该地区未来6年内是否发生大地震的一个有用因子。（例如，在初始事件的200公里距离内）。(2)贝叶斯时空ETAS模型与相对平静的检测本文提出了一个时空点过程模型，其中地震强度被描述为先前活动的函数，其中参数进一步被认为是空间位置（而不是时间）的函数，该空间位置（而不是时间）由基于地震观测位置的Tessellation上的线性插值表示。我们检测的时间偏差的实际地震率从模拟发生率。 ...更多信息 因此，我们展示了一些区域，在这些区域中，在latge地震之前，时间偏离了拟合模型，并出现了平静期。(3)相对平静与非同步地震滑动之间关系的定性研究我们已经给出了一些例子，假设在即将发生大地震的断层内存在非同步地震滑动，余震指示相对平静的分区对应于库仑应力变化的阴影。(2)（A）Vere-Jones触发模型的最大似然法被应用于地震群的预测分析。(B)提出了随机分布算法，并利用时空ETAS模型进行了论证。(C)本文利用Lin-Lin点过程模型，统计证实了在以吉林为中心的300公里半径范围内，低频电场激发与M ≥ 4级地震的关系。(D)成功地模拟了余震声发射序列，以检测与固体潮应力的因果关系。少

项目成果

Yoshihiko Ogata: "Exploratory analysis of earthquake clusters by likelihood-based trigger models"Probability Sta tistics and Seismology (Journal of Applied Probability). Volume38A. 202-212 (2001)

Yoshihiko Ogata：“通过基于可能性的触发模型对地震群进行探索性分析”概率统计和地震学（应用概率杂志）。

Ogata, Y.: "Seismiciy analysis through point-process modeling- A review"Pure and Applied Geophysics. 155. 471-507 (1999)

Ogata, Y.：“通过点过程建模进行地震分析 - 回顾”纯粹与应用地球物理学。

Ogata, Y.: "Estimating the hazard of upture using uncertain occurrence times of paleoearthguakes"Journal of Geophysical Research. 104, 38. 17995-18014 (1999)

Ogata, Y.：“利用古地震的不确定发生时间来估计破裂的危险”地球物理研究杂志。

Zhuang, J., Ogata, Y., Vere-Jones, D.: "Stochastic declustering of space-time earthquake occurrences"Journal of the American Statistical Association. (in press). (2002)

Zhuang, J.、Ogata, Y.、Vere-Jones, D.：“时空地震发生的随机去簇”美国统计协会杂志。

Iwata, T.: "Tidal stress/strain and acoustic emission activity at the underground research laboratory Canada"Geohphysial research Letters. (in press). (2002)

Iwata, T.：“加拿大地下研究实验室的潮汐应力/应变和声发射活动”地球物理研究快报。