Study on Predictability of Seasonal Forecast by a Climate Model

气候模型季节预报的可预报性研究

• 批准号: 22840016
• 负责人: IMADA Yukiko
• 金额: $ 1.74万
• 依托单位: Tokyo Institute of Technology
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Start-up
• 财政年份: 2010
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2010 至 2011
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-22840016/
• 关键词: 季節予報; 異常気象予測; ENSO; GCM(気候モデル); 予測可能性

Toward the forecast of recent extreme climate events, I constructed the seasonal prediction system with the atmosphere and ocean general circulation model MIROC including an initialization(assimilation) system. The skill of ensemble hindcast for the past 30 years was comparable to globally-advanced climate models. In addition, two kinds of downscaling methods were formulated to apply regional extreme events.

针对近期极端气候事件的预报，我用大气和海洋环流模式MIROC建立了季节预报系统，包括一个初始化（同化）系统。过去30年的集合后报技术可与全球先进的气候模式相媲美。此外，还提出了两种适用于区域极端事件的降尺度方法。

项目成果

ENSO amplitude change in doubled CO2 experiments evaluated by the temperature variance equation

通过温度方差方程评估双倍 CO2 实验中的 ENSO 振幅变化

• 发表时间: 2010
• 作者: J. Aleksi.;R. Orito et al(150 co-authors);Yukiko Imada
• 通讯作者: Yukiko Imada

Improvement to ENSO in AOGCM by introducing a new parameterization of Tropical Instability Waves

通过引入热带不稳定波的新参数化来改进 AOGCM 中的 ENSO

• 发表时间: 2010
• 作者: 横田巧;Yukiko Imada
• 通讯作者: Yukiko Imada

Convective Control of ENSO Simulated in MIROC

• DOI: 10.1175/2010jcli3878.1
• 发表时间: 2011-01
• 期刊: Journal of Climate
• 影响因子: 4.9
• 作者: M. Watanabe;M. Chikira;Y. Imada;M. Kimoto

An overview of decadal climate predictability in a multi-model ensemble by climate model MIROC

• DOI: 10.1007/s00382-012-1351-y
• 发表时间: 2012
• 期刊: Climate Dynamics
• 影响因子: 4.6
• 作者: Y. Chikamoto;M. Kimoto;M. Ishii;T. Mochizuki;Takashi T. Sakamoto;H. Tatebe;Y. Komuro;M. Watanabe;T. Nozawa;H. Shiogama;M. Mori;S. Yasunaka;Y. Imada

Seasonal climate predictability by the latest version of MIROC5 : Challenge to a seamless prediction system

最新版本 MIROC5 的季节性气候预测：对无缝预测系统的挑战

• 发表时间: 2012
• 作者: 末國晃一郎;鶴田光次郎;有賀智紀;小矢野幹夫;Yukiko Imada
• 通讯作者: Yukiko Imada