Strong motion and damage prediction for huge subduction-zone earthquakes based on a high precision prediction technique

在这项研究中，为了开发一种大俯冲带地震的定量损害预测技术并验证其有效性，进行了以下三个方面的研究：1)震源过程分析和强震预测技术的发展；2)场地特征的提取和地下结构的建设；3)定量损害预测的模型建立。然后利用经验格林函数方法对托南凯下一次地震的强震进行了评估，并对该方法的有效性进行了讨论。对于统计方法，将谱分离技术和时变特征建模技术应用于K-Net等国家台网获得的10秒宽带周期内的强震数据。我们用它们做了一辆大型的S…针对任务二，利用收集到的千叶市地理特征分类信息，建立了千叶市表层土壤三维结构模型，验证了模型的有效性。针对诺比平原强震的基本特征，对观测到的强震记录进行了多方面的分析。为了更准确地确定地下结构，提出了一种改进的接收函数法；对于任务3，提出了如何根据从微震或余震记录获得的结构响应特征来构建结构模型的技术，并通过与以往经验的比较进行了验证。最后，利用强震预报技术和结构震害预报技术对南开地震进行了强震和震害预报。因此，虽然震源区地震烈度达到7级的强震会产生严重的破坏，但人口密集区的预测破坏似乎没有我们之前担心的那么大。较少

In this research, in order to develop a quantitative damage prediction technique for a great subduction-zone earthquake and to verify its validity, the following three investigations were performed :1)Analysis of a source process and the development of the strong motion prediction technique,2)Extraction of site characteristics and the construction of underground structures, and3)Model creation for quantitative damage prediction.For task no.1, the strong motion generation areas were determined for seven interplate earthquakes in Off-Tokachi and Off-Kushiro regions. Then the empirical Green's function method was used to evaluate strong motions during the next Tonankai earthquake and the validity of the method was discussed. For statistical approach, the spectrum separation technique and the time-variation characteristic modeling technique are applied to strong motion data obtained by national networks such as K-NET for a broadband period range up to 10 seconds. We used them for a large s … More ubduction-zone earthquake.For task no.2 by using collected information on geographical feature classification for Chiba City three-dimensional surface soil structure model was built, and the validity of the model was shown. As for the fundamental characteristics of strong motions in Nobi Plain, various analyses were performed on observed strong motion records. For more precise determination of an underground structure, an improved receiver function method was proposed.For task no.3 the technique how to construct a structure model based on its response characteristics obtained from microtremor or aftershock records was proposed, and its verification was carried out by comparing it with past experience. Finally strong motion and damage prediction was performed for the Nankai earthquake by using prediction technique for strong motions and for structural damage. As a result, although heavy damage will be generated by strong motions reaching seismic intensity of 7 in the source region, the predicted damage in the population concentrated areas does not seem so large as we had been afraid of. Less