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Strong motion and damage prediction for huge subduction-zone earthquakes based on a high precision prediction technique

基于高精度预测技术的俯冲带大地震强震及震害预测

基本信息

批准号：
14350304
负责人：
KAWASE Hiroshi
金额：
$ 10.88万
依托单位：
KYUSHU UNIVERSITY
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2002
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2002 至 2004
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

In this research, in order to develop a quantitative damage prediction technique for a great subduction-zone earthquake and to verify its validity, the following three investigations were performed :1)Analysis of a source process and the development of the strong motion prediction technique,2)Extraction of site characteristics and the construction of underground structures, and3)Model creation for quantitative damage prediction.For task no.1, the strong motion generation areas were determined for seven interplate earthquakes in Off-Tokachi and Off-Kushiro regions. Then the empirical Green's function method was used to evaluate strong motions during the next Tonankai earthquake and the validity of the method was discussed. For statistical approach, the spectrum separation technique and the time-variation characteristic modeling technique are applied to strong motion data obtained by national networks such as K-NET for a broadband period range up to 10 seconds. We used them for a large s … More ubduction-zone earthquake.For task no.2 by using collected information on geographical feature classification for Chiba City three-dimensional surface soil structure model was built, and the validity of the model was shown. As for the fundamental characteristics of strong motions in Nobi Plain, various analyses were performed on observed strong motion records. For more precise determination of an underground structure, an improved receiver function method was proposed.For task no.3 the technique how to construct a structure model based on its response characteristics obtained from microtremor or aftershock records was proposed, and its verification was carried out by comparing it with past experience. Finally strong motion and damage prediction was performed for the Nankai earthquake by using prediction technique for strong motions and for structural damage. As a result, although heavy damage will be generated by strong motions reaching seismic intensity of 7 in the source region, the predicted damage in the population concentrated areas does not seem so large as we had been afraid of. Less

本研究以大俯冲带地震为研究对象，开展了震源过程分析和强震预测技术的开发、场地特征提取和地下构筑物的构筑、定量预测模型的建立等3项工作，以确定大俯冲带地震的定量预测技术，并验证其有效性。然后用经验绿色函数方法对下一次同安开地震的强震活动进行了估计，并对该方法的有效性进行了讨论。对于统计方法，频谱分离技术和时变特征建模技术被应用于由国家网络如K-NET获得的强震数据，其周期范围为10秒。我们用它们来做一个大型的 ...更多信息针对任务2，利用收集到的地理特征分类信息，建立了千叶市表层土壤三维结构模型，并验证了模型的有效性。关于野比平原强震的基本特征，对观测到的强震记录进行了各种分析。为了更精确地确定地下结构，提出了一种改进的接收函数法;针对任务3，提出了如何根据从地脉动或余震记录中获得的结构响应特征来构造结构模型的技术，并通过与以往经验的对比进行了验证。最后，利用强震预测技术和结构震害预测技术对南海地震进行了强震预测和震害预测。因此，虽然在震源区达到7度地震烈度的强烈运动将产生严重的破坏，但在人口集中地区预测的破坏似乎没有我们担心的那么大。少