Diary study to estimate the human bottleneck for manual contact tracing

日记研究估计手动接触者追踪的人力瓶颈

• 批准号: 458365091
• 负责人: Dr. Benjamin de Haas, Ph.D.
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Lehrstuhl für Industrieökonomie, Wettbewerbspolitik und Regulierung (VWL I)
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: Research Grants
• 资助国家: 德国
• 项目状态: 未结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/458365091?language=en
• 关键词: Diary; study; estimate; human; bottleneck

Recent modelling findings suggest that classic contact tracing may be too slow to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 effectively. However, manual (as opposed to digital) contact tracing does not only suffer from a temporal delay. It is also reliant on human attention and memory for social contacts, which are far from perfect. We propose to quantify this human bottleneck for manual contact tracing in an online diary study. Panel samples from two European countries will first be asked to report the number of Category I contacts for each of the previous 14 days, using questions posed in typical contact tracing settings (the retrospective part of the study). Participants will then be asked to pay close attention to their social interactions and report them in 14 daily intervals (the prospective part). We hypothesize that memory loss will be minimised during the prospective part, allowing us to approximate the ground truth of daily contacts, and by extension the memory loss for the retrospective part. We hypothesize that memory loss is substantial, increases as a power function of temporal distance, varies with factors such as age and is an important quantitative factor to consider for epidemiological models and political decision making.

最近的模型研究结果表明，传统的接触者追踪可能太慢，无法有效控制 SARS-CoV-2 的传播。然而，手动（相对于数字）接触者追踪不仅会出现时间延迟。它还依赖于人类的注意力和记忆来进行社会交往，而这远非完美。我们建议在在线日记研究中量化手动接触者追踪的人类瓶颈。首先，来自两个欧洲国家的小组样本将被要求报告过去 14 天每天的 I 类接触者数量，使用在典型的接触者追踪环境中提出的问题（研究的回顾部分）。然后，参与者将被要求密切关注他们的社交互动，并每隔 14 天报告一次（预期部分）。我们假设在前瞻性部分中记忆丧失将被最小化，使我们能够近似日常接触的基本事实，并通过扩展回顾性部分的记忆丧失。我们假设记忆丧失是严重的，随着时间距离的幂函数而增加，随着年龄等因素的变化而变化，并且是流行病学模型和政治决策中需要考虑的重要定量因素。