MOMO-Med: Modelling mosquito vectors and disease risk in the Mediterranean area under climate and land use change

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Mosquito-borne diseases are spreading globally and there are major concerns on further expansions yielding significant increases in the Mediterranean area. The main aim of the proposed project is to advance the modelling of vector distributions (Aedes and Anopheles species) and mosquito-borne disease risks (dengue, chikungunya, zika, yellow fever and malaria) and, thus, to assess the risk of vector-borne diseases under conditions of climate and land use change. Vector-borne diseases represent a major health threat to human societies with millions of people affected. There is increasing evidence that the situation of the considered diseases will aggravate under ongoing climate change and land degradation, spreading into densely populated regions like the Mediterranean area. The planned project contributes to an improved understanding of the global drivers and modes of the spread and activity of vectors and pathogens that are of crucial relevance to global and regional human societies. We intend to contribute to three major research fields, i.e. the advancement of the modelling of species distributions and transmission stability under future climate change, the assessment of the impact of dynamic land use changes in regional climate model simulations on species distributions, as well as the projection of disease risk under climate and land use change.