Seismic Damage Prediction and Control in Urban Region Based on Integrated Whole System with Source and Propagation Path and Structure

(1)基于地震动模型预测了日本未来四次大地震（南关东地震、东海地震、野比地震和山崎地震）的基础隔震建筑和高层建筑的结构响应。预测结果表明，震源距离、震源几何关系、震源地质构造、震源平面粗糙度强度和分布、震源指向性效应等因素主要描述了地震的地震动和建筑结构响应。(2)采用Riccati方程法和直接边界元法计算不同形状冲积谷的地震动。引入并定义了等效的平面层模型。确定了表面平坦层的厚度，使平面层表面波的理论频散曲线与冲积河谷表面波的理论频散曲线最拟合。对各种情况的考察表明，冲积山谷中产生的复杂放大模式可以简单而本质地解释为山谷边缘产生的直接波和表面波之间的干涉现象，其相速度由等效平层模型计算。(3)基于预测的大阪市区地震激励模型，提出了一种估算结构整体地震可靠度或危险性的分析方法。并给出了一些数值算例，对大阪市地区钢和钢筋混凝土建筑结构的整体抗震可靠度或危险性进行了分析。此外，为了检验所建立的地震可靠度分析方法的适用性或有效性，还对1995年兵古县南部地震的分析可靠度与震级进行了比较。

(1) Structural responses of base isolated buildings and high-rise buildings were predicted on the basis of the ground motion models for the next four great events in Japan: the Minami Kanto Earthquake, the Tokai Earthquake, the Nobi Earthquake and the Yamasaki Earthquake. The prediction results indicate that the ground motion and building structural response are mainly described by the focal distance, geometric relation between site and source, site geological structure, asperity strength and distribution on the fault plane, and source directivity effect.(2) The ground motions in various shapes of alluvial valleys were computed by using a new hybrid method of Riccati equation approach for the wave field inside the basin and the direct BEM for the rest. And we introduced and defined an equivalent flat layer model. The thickness of the surface flat layer was determined so that the theoretical dispersion curve of the surface wave in the flat layer fitted best the one in the alluvial valley. An examination of various cases indicates that complicated amplification patterns induced in alluvial valleys are simply and essentially explained by interference phenomena among the direct wave and the surface waves generated on the valley edges with phase velocities evaluated from the equivalent flat layer model.(3) We developed an analytical approach to estimating an overall seismic reliability or hazardness of structures based on the earthquake excitation model predicted for Osaka city area. And some numerical examples were given to am overall seismic reliability or hazardness of steel and reinforced concrete building structures in Osaka city area. Furthermore, in order to examine the applicability or validity of the developed seismic reliability analysis, a comparison was made between the analytical reliability and the damage magnitude for the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake.