Seismic Damage Prediction and Control in Urban Region Based on Integrated Whole System with Source and Propagation Path and Structure

(1)根据日本关东地震、东海地震、野壁地震和山崎地震的地面运动模型，对基础隔震建筑和高层建筑的结构反应进行了预测。预测结果表明，地震动场和建筑物结构响应主要由震源距、场地与震源的几何关系、场地地质结构、断裂面上的凹凸体强度和分布以及震源的方向性效应来描述。(2)对不同形状的冲积河谷，采用Riccati方程混合方法计算盆地内的波场，对其余部分采用直接边界元法。并引入并定义了一个等价的平面层模型。确定了地表平面层的厚度，使平面层中的面波理论频散曲线与冲积谷中的面波理论频散曲线最接近。对各种算例的检验表明，冲积河谷中产生的复杂的放大图样可以简单而本质地解释为在河谷边缘产生的直达波和面波之间的干涉现象，其相速度由等效平坦层模型估算。(3)基于大阪市区预测的地震激励模型，我们提出了一种估计结构整体地震可靠性或危险性的解析方法。并给出了大阪市区钢结构和钢筋混凝土建筑结构整体抗震可靠度或危险性的数值算例。此外，为了检验所开发的地震可靠性分析的适用性和有效性，将分析的可靠性与1995年兵库县南部地震的震级进行了比较。

(1) Structural responses of base isolated buildings and high-rise buildings were predicted on the basis of the ground motion models for the next four great events in Japan: the Minami Kanto Earthquake, the Tokai Earthquake, the Nobi Earthquake and the Yamasaki Earthquake. The prediction results indicate that the ground motion and building structural response are mainly described by the focal distance, geometric relation between site and source, site geological structure, asperity strength and distribution on the fault plane, and source directivity effect.(2) The ground motions in various shapes of alluvial valleys were computed by using a new hybrid method of Riccati equation approach for the wave field inside the basin and the direct BEM for the rest. And we introduced and defined an equivalent flat layer model. The thickness of the surface flat layer was determined so that the theoretical dispersion curve of the surface wave in the flat layer fitted best the one in the alluvial valley. An examination of various cases indicates that complicated amplification patterns induced in alluvial valleys are simply and essentially explained by interference phenomena among the direct wave and the surface waves generated on the valley edges with phase velocities evaluated from the equivalent flat layer model.(3) We developed an analytical approach to estimating an overall seismic reliability or hazardness of structures based on the earthquake excitation model predicted for Osaka city area. And some numerical examples were given to am overall seismic reliability or hazardness of steel and reinforced concrete building structures in Osaka city area. Furthermore, in order to examine the applicability or validity of the developed seismic reliability analysis, a comparison was made between the analytical reliability and the damage magnitude for the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake.