Seismic Damage Prediction and Control in Urban Region Based on Integrated Whole System with Source and Propagation Path and Structure

(1)根据地震地面运动模型，预测了日本接下来发生的4次大地震（南关东地震、东海地震、野比地震和山崎地震）中基础隔震建筑和高层建筑的结构反应。预测结果表明，震源距、场地与震源的几何关系、场地地质构造、断层面上的粗糙体强度及分布、震源方向性效应等因素对地震动和建筑结构响应有重要影响。(2)本文采用一种新的混合方法计算了各种形状的冲积河谷地震动，其中盆地内的波场采用Riccati方程法，其余部分采用直接边界元法。引入并定义了一个等效平层模型。确定了表面平坦层的厚度，使得平坦层中表面波的理论频散曲线与冲积河谷中的理论频散曲线最佳拟合。各种情况下的检查表明，在冲积河谷引起的复杂的放大模式简单，本质上解释了直接波和表面波之间的干扰现象产生的山谷边缘的相速度从等效的平层模型。(3)我们开发了一种分析方法来估计整体地震的可靠性或危险性的结构的基础上预测大坂市地区的地震激励模型。最后给出了大坂市钢结构和钢筋混凝土结构的抗震可靠度或危险度的计算实例。此外，为了检验所开发的地震可靠性分析的适用性或有效性，1995年兵库县南部地震的分析可靠性和破坏程度之间进行了比较。

(1) Structural responses of base isolated buildings and high-rise buildings were predicted on the basis of the ground motion models for the next four great events in Japan: the Minami Kanto Earthquake, the Tokai Earthquake, the Nobi Earthquake and the Yamasaki Earthquake. The prediction results indicate that the ground motion and building structural response are mainly described by the focal distance, geometric relation between site and source, site geological structure, asperity strength and distribution on the fault plane, and source directivity effect.(2) The ground motions in various shapes of alluvial valleys were computed by using a new hybrid method of Riccati equation approach for the wave field inside the basin and the direct BEM for the rest. And we introduced and defined an equivalent flat layer model. The thickness of the surface flat layer was determined so that the theoretical dispersion curve of the surface wave in the flat layer fitted best the one in the alluvial valley. An examination of various cases indicates that complicated amplification patterns induced in alluvial valleys are simply and essentially explained by interference phenomena among the direct wave and the surface waves generated on the valley edges with phase velocities evaluated from the equivalent flat layer model.(3) We developed an analytical approach to estimating an overall seismic reliability or hazardness of structures based on the earthquake excitation model predicted for Osaka city area. And some numerical examples were given to am overall seismic reliability or hazardness of steel and reinforced concrete building structures in Osaka city area. Furthermore, in order to examine the applicability or validity of the developed seismic reliability analysis, a comparison was made between the analytical reliability and the damage magnitude for the 1995 Hyogo-ken Nanbu Earthquake.