Study on forward prediction model of ground motion for seismlic design on the basis of wave propagation theory and source dynamics.

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The objective of this research project is to present the prediction model of ground motion for reasonable seismic design of structural systems on the basis of wave propagation theory and source dynamics.This project consists of two sub-projects: (I) The study on the regional factors to specify the characteristics of ground motions which would occur in Rinku town. (II)The study on prediction model of ground motion for seismic design. Sub-project(I): It has been tried to specify the active fault areas which would be important to evaluate seismic safety of a building structure in Riku town. Those areas are determined by seismic energy quantities radiated along the many faults distributed in Kinki district. Nankai trough and Chuo Kouzousen are selected as the most seismically critical and active fault areas. The soil sediment structures in Rinku town and the geolgical structure from those fault areas to bedrock have also been investigated. Sub-project(II): It has been tried to present the prediction model of ground motion for reasonable seismic design of a building structure to be built in Riku town area. To describe the refined wave propagation path and site effect model, the soil sediment structures in Riku town area and the geological structure from fault areas to the bedrock below the ground surface have been investigated. The ground motion is theoretically modeled by the Green's function from source to site and the simple source function. The validity of the prediction model is verified through a blind prediction test for observed earthquake ground motions at Ashigra valley.