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Statistical Model for evaluating health effects of dioxins around waste incinerators

评估垃圾焚烧炉周围二恶英健康影响的统计模型

基本信息

批准号：
13480072
负责人：
TANGO Toshiro
金额：
$ 9.73万
依托单位：
National Institute of Public Health
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (B)
财政年份：
2001
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2001 至 2003
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-13480072/
关键词：
dioxins Poisson distribution score test Monte Carlo simulation GIS ポアソン分布

项目摘要

There has been great public concern that adverse reproductive health effects may be associated with dioxins in emission gases from municipal solid waste (MSW) incinerators. Recently, Japan's first-ever large scale nationwide epidemiological study has begun to examine the association of adverse reproductive outcomes with mothers living within 10km from 63 MSW incinerators with high dioxin emission levels (above 80ng international toxic equivalents TEQ/m^3) in Japan. The primary purpose of our study was to investigate the statistical method to analyze the data collected in the above study and also to propose a method applicable to more general problems of raised disease risk around putative point sources.As statistical method to detect such clusters, Stone's maximum likelihood ratio test and score tests which score each case the reciprocal of the distance from a point source are popular. In our study, we have proposed extensions of score tests based on small area data in that (i)it allows us to select the best among prespecified parametric exposure functions to avoid multiple testing problems and (ii)it can be applied to a possible situation where the hazardous substance levels tend to peak at some distance from a point source. The properties of the proposed tests and their power have been examined and illustrated with hypothetical data and also the power calculation has been conducted on the study design of above-stated epidemiological study. Simulation study shows that the powers of the proposed tests are higher than that of Stone's test over all the alternatives considered.

公众非常关注到，城市固体废物焚烧炉排放的气体中的二恶英可能会对生殖健康造成不良影响。最近，日本有史以来第一项大规模的全国性流行病学研究开始研究居住在日本63个二恶英排放水平较高(超过80 ng国际有毒当量TEQ/m^3)的垃圾焚烧炉10公里范围内的母亲与不良生殖结果的关系。本研究的主要目的是探讨统计方法以分析上述研究中收集的数据，并提出一种适用于假设点源周围疾病风险升高的更一般问题的方法。作为检测此类聚集性的统计方法，Stone的最大似然比检验和对每个病例与点源的距离的倒数进行评分的得分检验很流行。在我们的研究中，我们提出了基于小区域数据的SCORE测试的扩展，因为(I)它允许我们在预先指定的参数暴露函数中选择最好的，以避免多个测试问题；(Ii)它可以应用于危险物质水平往往在距离点源某一距离处达到峰值的可能情况。用假设数据对所提出的检验方法及其威力进行了检验和说明，并对上述流行病学研究设计进行了威力计算。仿真研究表明，在所考虑的所有备选方案中，所提出的检验方法的威力高于Stone的检验方法。