Research and Development of Strategies that improve "disaster information reachability

本课题涉及三个相互关联的研究课题。第一个专题涉及灾害模式的形成对风险认知、备灾和减灾的影响。基于这一假设，一个采访框架，以进行民族志采访的市政府工作人员，救灾志愿者，和吴市的居民，在1999年（台风引起的洪水灾害）和2001年（艺阳地震灾害）发生两次重大灾害。1999年的洪灾经验表明，无论是政府人员还是当地居民，都能有效地做好应对灾害的准备。第二个项目试图通过对菲律宾马里基纳市1,000名居民的社会调查数据，说明个人风险管理行为与可能发生的地震灾害之间的因果关系。通过将Fishbein和Ajzen（1975）的理性行为模型和Neisser（1978）的认知行为模型相结合， 关于我们 明确的模式，地震风险规避的具体行为进行了建模。该模型的九个主要组成部分包括：a）风险厌恶行为，以个人水平的地震减灾和备灾实践的程度为衡量标准，B）行为意图，c）态度，d）主观规范，e）规范信念，f）风险感知，以主观概率和对包括地震在内的重大灾害后果的估计为衡量标准，g）引导个人将某些现象构建为灾害的灾害图式，h）个人可获得的资源; i）社会人口变量。一系列的结构方程模型（SEM）与潜变量导致以下结果。意愿、风险感知和资源对风险厌恶行为有直接的预测作用。态度、主观规范和风险感知对意向有预测作用。主观规范预测的规范性信念。知觉风险和规范信念，然后预测灾害图式形成的程度。研究结果对马里基纳风险管理政策的政策含义进行了讨论。本项目的第三个假设是，灾害图式可以通过公众教育、参与式和体验式学习过程来制定。为了证明上述观点，进行了两种类型的行动研究项目。其中一个项目涉及非工程房屋拆除实验。实验表明，当地可用的资源和非常小的建设成本的增加，可以增加房屋的强度相当显着地对抗可能的地震摇晃。另一个项目是为期一天的灾害对策展览，事实证明，这不仅提高了人们对地震风险的认识，而且提高了人们为减少风险而可以采取的对策的认识。少

Three inter-related research topics were deal with in the current project. The first topic was concerned with the impacts of disaster schema formation upon risk perception, preparedness and mitigation. Based on this assumption, an interview framework was developed in order to conduct ethnographic interviews with municipal government personnel, relief aid volunteers, and residents of Kure city where two major disasters hit in 1999 (typhoon-caused flood disaster) and 2001 (Geiyo earthquake disaster). It was clearly demonstrated that the 1999 flood disaster experiences helped both government personnel and residents of the area to prepare effectively for the disaster.The second project attempted,to account for causal relations among personal risk management behaviors against possible earthquake disasters using social survey data collected from 1,000 Marikina city residents in Philippines. By incorporating Fishbein and Ajzen (1975) model of reasoned action and Neisser's (1978) model of cogn … More itive schema, earthquake risk aversion specific behavior was modeled. Nine major components of the model consist of a)risk aversive behavior as measured by the degree of personal level earthquake disaster mitigation and preparedness practices, b)behavioral intention, c)attitude, d)subjective norm, e)normative belief, f)risk perception as measured by subjective probability and consequence estimates of major disasters including earthquakes, g)a disaster schema that guides individuals to construct certain phenomena as disasters, h)resources available to individuals, and i)socio-demographic variables. A series of structural equation modeling (SEM) with latent variables resulted in the following findings. Risk aversive behavior was directly predicted by intention, risk perception and resources. Intention was predicted by attitude, subjective norms and risk perception. Subjective norms were predicted by normative beliefs. Both perceived risk and normative belief were then predicted by the degree of disaster schema formation. The policy implications of these findings to the Marikina risk management policy were discussed.The third assumption of the project was that disaster schema can be developed by means of public education, participatory and experiential learning processes. Two type of action research projects were conducted in order to prove the above point. One project was involved with non-engineered house demolition experiments. The experiments demonstrated that locally available resources and a very minor increase in construction cost can increase the house strength quite significantly against the possible earthquake shaking. The other project was concerned with one day disaster counter measure exhibition which proved to increase people's awareness concerning not only earthquake risk but also the counter measures that people can employ in order to reduce the risk. Less