Research and Development of Strategies that improve "disaster information reachability

本项目涉及三个相互关联的研究课题。第一个专题涉及灾害模式的形成对风险认知、防备和缓解的影响。基于这一假设，制定了一个访谈框架，以便对1999年(台风引发的洪水灾害)和2001年(庆应地震灾害)两次重大灾害发生的库尔市的市政府官员、救灾志愿者和居民进行人种学访谈。这清楚地表明，1999年的洪灾经历帮助该地区的政府人员和居民有效地为灾害做好了准备。第二个项目试图利用从菲律宾马里基纳市1,000名居民收集的社会调查数据来解释个人风险管理行为与可能发生的地震灾害之间的因果关系。通过结合Fishbein和Ajzen(1975)的理性行为模型和Neisser(1978)的…模型更直观的模式，地震避险的具体行为被建模。该模型的九个主要组成部分包括：a)由个人层面的防震减灾实践程度衡量的避险行为，b)行为意图，c)态度，d)主观规范，e)规范信念，f)风险感知，通过对包括地震在内的重大灾害的主观概率和后果估计来衡量，g)引导个人构建某些现象的灾害图式，h)个人可用的资源，以及i)社会人口变量。一系列带有潜变量的结构方程模型(SEM)得到了以下结果。风险厌恶行为直接受到意图、风险感知和资源的预测。意向通过态度、主观规范和风险感知进行预测。主观规范由规范信念预测。然后，通过灾难图式形成的程度来预测感知风险和规范信念。讨论了这些调查结果对马里基纳风险管理政策的政策影响。该项目的第三个假设是，可以通过公共教育、参与性和体验式学习过程来制定灾害图式。为了证明上述观点，进行了两类行动研究项目。其中一个项目涉及非工程房屋拆迁实验。实验证明，当地可用的资源和建筑成本的微小增加可以极大地提高房屋的强度，以抵御可能的地震震动。另一个项目是关于一天的灾害对策展览，事实证明，这次展览不仅提高了人们对地震风险的认识，而且提高了人们可以采取的应对措施以降低风险的意识。较少

Three inter-related research topics were deal with in the current project. The first topic was concerned with the impacts of disaster schema formation upon risk perception, preparedness and mitigation. Based on this assumption, an interview framework was developed in order to conduct ethnographic interviews with municipal government personnel, relief aid volunteers, and residents of Kure city where two major disasters hit in 1999 (typhoon-caused flood disaster) and 2001 (Geiyo earthquake disaster). It was clearly demonstrated that the 1999 flood disaster experiences helped both government personnel and residents of the area to prepare effectively for the disaster.The second project attempted,to account for causal relations among personal risk management behaviors against possible earthquake disasters using social survey data collected from 1,000 Marikina city residents in Philippines. By incorporating Fishbein and Ajzen (1975) model of reasoned action and Neisser's (1978) model of cogn … More itive schema, earthquake risk aversion specific behavior was modeled. Nine major components of the model consist of a)risk aversive behavior as measured by the degree of personal level earthquake disaster mitigation and preparedness practices, b)behavioral intention, c)attitude, d)subjective norm, e)normative belief, f)risk perception as measured by subjective probability and consequence estimates of major disasters including earthquakes, g)a disaster schema that guides individuals to construct certain phenomena as disasters, h)resources available to individuals, and i)socio-demographic variables. A series of structural equation modeling (SEM) with latent variables resulted in the following findings. Risk aversive behavior was directly predicted by intention, risk perception and resources. Intention was predicted by attitude, subjective norms and risk perception. Subjective norms were predicted by normative beliefs. Both perceived risk and normative belief were then predicted by the degree of disaster schema formation. The policy implications of these findings to the Marikina risk management policy were discussed.The third assumption of the project was that disaster schema can be developed by means of public education, participatory and experiential learning processes. Two type of action research projects were conducted in order to prove the above point. One project was involved with non-engineered house demolition experiments. The experiments demonstrated that locally available resources and a very minor increase in construction cost can increase the house strength quite significantly against the possible earthquake shaking. The other project was concerned with one day disaster counter measure exhibition which proved to increase people's awareness concerning not only earthquake risk but also the counter measures that people can employ in order to reduce the risk. Less