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Estimating the Parent Distribution of Storm Type-Separated Annual Maximum Wave Height on the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

西北太平洋风暴类型分离年最大波高母体分布的估算

基本信息

批准号：
14580506
负责人：
YAMAGUCHI Masataka
金额：
$ 1.98万
依托单位：
Ehime University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2002
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2002 至 2003
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-14580506/
关键词：
wave extremes parent distribution typhoon-generated waves low-generated waves Monte-Carlo simulation wave estimation measurement data the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

项目摘要

This study produces a large size sample of storm type-separated annual maximum(AM) wave height data through a Monte-Carlo simulation of typhoon-generated waves over 20,000 years or low pressure system(low)-generated waves over 10,000 years on the Northwestern Pacific Ocean including the Japan Sea and the East China Sea, and estimates a parent distribution based on the extreme value analysis for each of the AM wave height data sets. Also, the availability is investigated through the comparison with the return wave heights and their ratios similarly evaluated for historical typhoons in the past 50 years and for historical lows in the past 20 years. Main results are summarized as follows.1.The distribution of 50-year return wave height is in qualitative and quantitative agreement with that estimated for each type of the historical storms.2.The parent distribution of typhoon-generated AM data is approximated with the Weibull distribution, in which the shape parameter tends to decrease from around 4 on the southwestern area toward around 1.4 on the northwestern area and on the northeastern area. On the Japan Sea, the shape parameter decreases from Japan side toward the continent. For the case of low-generated AM data, the shape parameter decreases semi-circularly from a value of 2 on the eastern area, and the Gumbel distribution is selected on the wide area around Japan.3.The parent distribution of storm type-free AM data is strongly affected by predominant storm-separated AM data.4.A sample of R-year return wave height is highly approximated with the Weibull distribution, and the greater the ratio of return period to sample size is, the smaller the value of shape parameter becomes. This means a longer tailing of the sample distribution with increase of the ratio.

本研究通过蒙特-卡罗模拟包括日本海和中国东海在内的西北太平洋上2万年以上的台风生成波或1万年以上的低压系统（低）生成波，产生了大样本的风暴类型分离的年最大波高数据，并且基于每个AM波高数据集的极值分析来估计母分布。同时，通过与过去50年历史台风和过去20年历史低点的回波波高及其比值的比较，研究了其可用性。主要研究结果如下：1.台风50年回波波高的分布与历史上各类风暴的估计值在定性和定量上都是一致的; 2.台风产生的AM资料的母源分布可用Weibull分布近似，其中形状参数从西南区域的大约4向西北区域和东北区域的大约1.4趋于减小。在日本海，形状参数从日本一侧向大陆减小。对于低生成的AM资料，形状参数在东部地区从2开始呈半圆形减小，在日本周边的大范围内选择Gumbel分布; 3.无风暴类型的AM资料的母源分布强烈地受到主要风暴分离的AM资料的影响; 4. R年回波波高样本与Weibull分布高度近似，重现期与样本量之比越大，形状参数值越小。这意味着随着比率的增加，样本分布的拖尾更长。