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Estimating the Parent Distribution of Storm Type-Separated Annual Maximum Wave Height on the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

西北太平洋风暴类型分离年最大波高母体分布的估算

基本信息

批准号：
14580506
负责人：
YAMAGUCHI Masataka
金额：
$ 1.98万
依托单位：
Ehime University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2002
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2002 至 2003
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-14580506/
关键词：
wave extremes parent distribution typhoon-generated waves low-generated waves Monte-Carlo simulation wave estimation measurement data the Northwestern Pacific Ocean

项目摘要

This study produces a large size sample of storm type-separated annual maximum(AM) wave height data through a Monte-Carlo simulation of typhoon-generated waves over 20,000 years or low pressure system(low)-generated waves over 10,000 years on the Northwestern Pacific Ocean including the Japan Sea and the East China Sea, and estimates a parent distribution based on the extreme value analysis for each of the AM wave height data sets. Also, the availability is investigated through the comparison with the return wave heights and their ratios similarly evaluated for historical typhoons in the past 50 years and for historical lows in the past 20 years. Main results are summarized as follows.1.The distribution of 50-year return wave height is in qualitative and quantitative agreement with that estimated for each type of the historical storms.2.The parent distribution of typhoon-generated AM data is approximated with the Weibull distribution, in which the shape parameter tends to decrease from around 4 on the southwestern area toward around 1.4 on the northwestern area and on the northeastern area. On the Japan Sea, the shape parameter decreases from Japan side toward the continent. For the case of low-generated AM data, the shape parameter decreases semi-circularly from a value of 2 on the eastern area, and the Gumbel distribution is selected on the wide area around Japan.3.The parent distribution of storm type-free AM data is strongly affected by predominant storm-separated AM data.4.A sample of R-year return wave height is highly approximated with the Weibull distribution, and the greater the ratio of return period to sample size is, the smaller the value of shape parameter becomes. This means a longer tailing of the sample distribution with increase of the ratio.

本研究通过对西北太平洋（包括日本海和东海）20,000多年的台风产生的波浪或10,000多年的低压系统（低）产生的波浪进行蒙特卡罗模拟，产生了风暴类型分离的年最大（AM）波高数据的大样本，并根据每个AM波高数据集的极值分析估计了父分布。此外，还通过与过去 50 年历史台风和过去 20 年历史低点的回波高度及其比率进行比较来调查可用性。主要结果如下：1.50年回波波高的分布与历史各类型风暴的估计在定性和定量上一致。2.台风AM数据的母体分布近似于Weibull分布，形状参数呈从西南地区的4左右向西北地区和东北地区的1.4左右下降的趋势。在日本海，形状参数从日本一侧向大陆递减。对于低生成AM数据的情况，东部地区形状参数从2开始呈半圆形递减，在日本周边广大地区选择Gumbel分布。3.无风暴类型AM数据的母分布受主要风暴分离AM数据的影响较大。4.R年回波波高样本与Weibull分布高度近似，且回波周期与样本量的比值越大，其母分布越小。形状参数的值变为。这意味着随着比率的增加，样本分布的拖尾会更长。