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Estimation of Typhoon-Generated Extreme Storm Surges and Waves on the Western Seto Inland Sea and their Real-Time Forecast

濑户内海西部台风引发的极端风暴潮和波浪的估算及其实时预报

基本信息

批准号：
12680464
负责人：
YAMAGUCHI Masataka
金额：
$ 1.92万
依托单位：
Ehime University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2000
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2000 至 2001
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-12680464/
关键词：
Western Seto Inland Sea coastal disasters Typhoon 9918 Typhoon 9119 atmospheric pressure strong winds storm surges high waves

项目摘要

This study investigates coastal disasters and sea state conditions during Typhoons 9918 and 9119 on the Western Seto Inland Sea, based on the data analysis and estimates extremes of storm surges and waves on the concerned sea area using hindcast results for historical typhoons over 51 years and for simulated typhoons over 500 years. Also, a real time forecasting for typhoon-generated storm surges and waves is attempted. Main results are summarized as follows.1. Typhoon 9918 gave severe damages along coastal areas on the Western Seto Inland Sea as well as Typhoon 9119, but damaged areas are different from each other, depending on sea levels associated with astronomical tides and storm surges.2. Spatial interpolations with use of one-hourly atmospheric pressure, winds and sea levels make it possible to follow their space-time variations on the sea area associated with movement of the typhoon.3. Typhoon 9918 may have brought about extremely high waves exceeding the maximum waves in the past 50 years on the Suounada sea area, western part of the Western Seto Inland Sea. Superposition of high waves and storm surges near the phase of the high water level ia a main cause of severe disasters along the coastal areas from Fukuoka to Yamaguchi Prefectures.4. 50-year return storm surge height increases toward the inland sea area from Bungo Channel and toward the western and eastern areas on the inland sea. Also, 50-year return wave height changes from 12 m on Bungo Channel to 6 m on the inland sea and decreases toward the western and eastern sea areas on the inland sea. The return values evaluated for simulated typhoon cases are in reasonable agreement with those for historical typhoon cases.5. A real time forecasting system of typhoon-generated, storm surges and waves yields reasonable estimates for their time variations.

本研究在资料分析的基础上，调查了9918和9119号台风在西濑户内海期间的海岸灾害和海况，并利用51年以上历史台风和500年以上模拟台风的后报结果，估算了有关海域的风暴潮和海浪极值。并尝试了台风风暴潮和海浪的真实的时间预报。主要研究结果如下：1. 9918号台风和9119号台风对濑户内海西部沿海地区造成了严重的沿着破坏，但由于天文潮和风暴潮的影响，受灾地区各不相同。2.利用逐时气压、风速和海平面进行空间插值，可以跟踪其在与台风移动相关海域的时空变化. 9918号台风可能在西濑户内海西部的Suounada海域带来了超过过去50年最大波浪的极高波浪。高水位附近高浪和风暴潮的叠加是造成福冈县至山口县沿海沿着严重灾害的主要原因. 50-年重现期风暴潮高度从丰后海峡向内海地区和内海的西部和东部地区增加。此外，50年一遇的回波波高从丰后海峡的12 m变化到内海的6 m，并在内海向西部和东部海域减小。模拟台风个例的反演结果与历史台风个例的反演结果吻合较好.台风、风暴潮和海浪的真实的时间预报系统能对它们的时间变化作出合理的估计。