Conflict analysis by possibility theory and dynamic models

通过可能性理论和动态模型进行冲突分析

• 批准号: 15510133
• 负责人: SHISHIDO Harunori
• 金额: $ 2.05万
• 依托单位: Kagawa University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2003
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2003 至 2004
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-15510133/
• 关键词: Conflict; Graph model; Shapley value; Possibility theory; Bidding; Second price system; Fairness; Cost sharing; ネットワーク; 可能性情報; 最適発注量; ライフサイクル

Our research focuses on the resolution of conflicts theoretically and practically. The multilateral conflict aspects are considered. Our approaches are based on possibility theory, bidding theory, cooperative game theory and graph models.Fair cost sharing of network maintenance is analyzed. It is shown that the Shapley values of cooperative game theory give a rational resolution of the problem. We give a definition of characteristic function of network structure then define the Shapled values on it. They can be calculated very easily. The idea is applied to the actual situation, maintenance of railway network by the local governments, and we show that theoretical result is similar to the actual situation.Applying the graph model to the conflict resolution, we propose a new way of policy analysis. It is shown that the important thing about the refinement is limited to the stakeholders' direct interests.We also consider the bidding problem of the public construction. It is pointed out that under an uncertainty such as ground condition the expected values are not appropriate for both governments and builders. We propose a new bidding system that does not use the expected values as payoffs. Our bidding system is designed by using the second price bidding system.We formalize the uncertainty of demand by possibility distribution, then propose a new decision models. By our new decision model we can determine the optimal order quantity of the short life cycle goods.We have proposed several ways of conflict resolutions that can be applied to the actual situations. It is expected that these will be applied to many real conflicts.

我们的研究集中在解决冲突的理论和实践。多边冲突的方面进行了审议。我们的方法是基于可能性理论，投标理论，合作博弈理论和图模型，网络维护的公平分摊成本进行了分析。结果表明，合作对策理论的Shapley值给出了一个合理的解决方案的问题。本文给出了网络结构的特征函数的定义，并在其上定义了Shapled值，它们可以很容易地计算出来。将该思想应用于地方政府对铁路网的实际维护中，结果表明理论分析结果与实际情况相吻合，并将图模型应用于冲突解决中，为政策分析提供了一种新的思路。研究表明，细化的重要性仅限于利益相关者的直接利益。指出在地面条件等不确定性条件下，期望值对政府和建筑商都是不合适的。我们提出了一个新的投标系统，不使用期望值作为回报。我们的投标系统是采用二级价格投标系统设计的，我们用可能性分布形式化了需求的不确定性，并提出了一种新的决策模型。通过新的决策模型可以确定短生命周期产品的最优订货量，并提出了几种适用于实际情况的冲突解决方法。预期这些将适用于许多真实的冲突。

项目成果

Guo Peijun: "Newsvendor problems based on possibility theory"Proceeding of 7th International Conference on Knowledge-Based Intelligent Information and Engineering Systems,2003. 213-219 (2003)

郭培军：“基于可能性理论的报童问题”第七届基于知识的智能信息与工程系统国际会议论文集，2003年。

Bankruptcy of the Takamatsu-Kotohira Electric Railroad and Financial Support by the Local Governments

高松琴平电气铁道的破产与地方政府的财政支持

• 发表时间: 2003
• 期刊: Kagawa University Economi Review Vol.75, No.3
• 作者: Harunori Shishido

Policy Stable States in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution

• DOI: 10.1007/s11238-005-2459-x
• 发表时间: 2004-12
• 期刊: Theory and Decision
• 影响因子: 0.8
• 作者: Dao‐Zhi Zeng;L. Fang;K. Hipel;D. Kilgour

宍戸栄徳: "高松琴平電鉄の経営破綻と行政支援"香川大学経済論叢. 第76巻・第3号. 49-59 (2003)

Eitoku Shishido：“高松琴平电铁的破产和行政支持”香川大学经济评论系列第76卷第3. 49-59（2003年）

The second-price bidding system under uncertainty

• DOI: 10.1109/icsmc.2004.1398444
• 发表时间: 2004-10
• 期刊: 2004 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man and Cybernetics (IEEE Cat. No.04CH37583)
• 作者: H. Shishido;Dao‐Zhi Zeng;Xiaoguang Yang