Study on Emergence of Business Strategies by Using Agent Based Simulations

为科普现今经济全球化及顾客需求多样化的趋势，企业需要即时估计顾客偏好的变化，并制定有效的经营策略，以克服市场上的竞争对手。然而，预测客户和竞争对手的行为并不容易，这两者对于确定有效的战略至关重要。目前，许多企业都是通过传统的统计方法来分析客户的行为，并将分析结果反映到企业的战略中，本研究试图在对生物制造系统研究的基础上，实现一个能够分析和支持企业战略规划的需求链仿真系统。作为研究的第一步，我们开发了一个软饮料自动售货机需求链模拟原型系统。仿真结果表明，该仿真系统能够应用于真实的市场。

To cope with recent globalization of economy and diversified customers' request, enterprises have required to estimate the change of customers' preference immediately and draw up the effective business strategies in order to overcome the competitors in the market. However, it is not easy to predict the customer's and competitors' behavior, both of which are most important to determine the effective strategies. In the presence, many enterprises analyze the behavior of the customers by the conventional statistical methods and reflects the results to own strategies.In this research, we try to realize a demand chain simulation system that can analyze and support to plan the business strategies based on the research on the biological manufacturing systems. As the first step of the research, we develop a prototype system of demand chain simulator for soft drink business through vending machines. The simulation results suggest that the simulation system can be applicable to the real market.