Study on Emergence of Business Strategies by Using Agent Based Simulations

为了应对经济全球化和顾客需求的多样化，企业需要及时预测顾客偏好的变化，制定有效的经营策略，以战胜市场上的竞争对手。然而，预测客户和竞争对手的行为并不容易，这两者对于确定有效的策略是最重要的。目前，许多企业采用传统的统计方法对客户的行为进行分析，并将分析结果反映到企业的战略中。本研究在对生物制造系统进行研究的基础上，试图实现一个能够分析和支持企业战略规划的需求链仿真系统。作为研究的第一步，我们开发了一个通过自动售货机进行软饮料业务需求链模拟器的原型系统。仿真结果表明，该仿真系统可以应用于实际市场。

To cope with recent globalization of economy and diversified customers' request, enterprises have required to estimate the change of customers' preference immediately and draw up the effective business strategies in order to overcome the competitors in the market. However, it is not easy to predict the customer's and competitors' behavior, both of which are most important to determine the effective strategies. In the presence, many enterprises analyze the behavior of the customers by the conventional statistical methods and reflects the results to own strategies.In this research, we try to realize a demand chain simulation system that can analyze and support to plan the business strategies based on the research on the biological manufacturing systems. As the first step of the research, we develop a prototype system of demand chain simulator for soft drink business through vending machines. The simulation results suggest that the simulation system can be applicable to the real market.