Estimation of Distribution of Population using Migration Model in Age Group and Political Simulation in Japan

本研究的目的是将反映自然条件、区域历史文化和心理因素的区域间关联度构建为基于区域间效用差异的迁移模型。同时，在该模型中引入了一些社会经济宏观因素。利用该模型进行政治模拟也是本研究的目的。首先，在农村地区，许多城镇和村庄已经面临着与老龄化人口快速增长和低出生率相关的严重担忧，因此推导出了一个年龄组迁移模型。结果表明，区域间的出行时间、区域是否属于同一流域、区域之间是否由相同数量的国家公路网连接三个变量对迁徙流量有显著影响。其次，将交通设施的发展和历史主干道的存在引入迁徙模型，并将交通设施的发展对迁徙的影响应用于日本各地。因此，模型中包含的与交通状况相关的变量是有价值的和有效的。这一结果将为未来的政策提供参考。最后，本文推导了一个考虑生命意识变化的移民模型，以阐明心理因素对移民的影响。因此，可以说，当迁徙非常活跃时，人们的迁徙独立于他们对所居住的世界的感知和他们的实际生活。另一方面，当移民是被动的时候，可以说他们对自己生活的世界的感知和他们的实际生活影响着移民。此外，基于该模型进行的政治模拟所得到的国家土地人口分布情况，对政策进行了讨论。

The aim of this study is to construct a migration model taking the degree of relationship between regions which expresses natural condition, regional histories and cultures, and psychological factors into a model based on regional difference in utility between regions. At the same time, some socioeconomic macro factors are introduced to this model. The political simulation using this model is the aim of the study, too.First, an age group migration model is derived in rural region where many towns and villages have already faced serious concerns related to rapid increase in aging population and a low birthrate. As a result, it is proved that the relationship between regions is explained by three variables, the travel time between regions, whether the regions belong to same basin and whether the regions are connected by same number of national road networks, which have a significant influence on migration flow.Second, a migration model including variables of change in condition by development of transportation facilities and the existence of historical trunk roads is applied to all over Japan to clarify the influence of development of transportation facilities on migration. As a result, the variables related to traffic condition incorporated in the model are valuable and effective. This result will be of references to future policy.At last, a migration model in consideration of change in consciousness of life is derived to clarify the influence of psychological factors to migration. As a result, it can be said that people move independently of their perception of the world where they live and their actual life when migration is very active. On the other hand, when migration is passive, it can be said that their perception of the world where they live and their actual life affects migration. In addition, the policy is discussed based on population distribution of the national land which was obtain by the political simulation using the model.