Estimation of Distribution of Population using Migration Model in Age Group and Political Simulation in Japan

本研究的目的是将表达自然条件、区域历史文化和心理因素的区域关系程度转化为基于区域间效用差异的区域迁移模型。同时，该模型还引入了一些宏观社会经济因素。利用该模型进行政治模拟也是本研究的目的。首先，推导了农村地区的年龄组人口迁移模型，其中许多城镇和村庄已经面临着与人口老龄化迅速增加和低出生率有关的严重问题。结果证明，区域间的旅行时间、区域间是否属于同一流域、区域间是否有相同数量的国家公路网连接三个变量解释了区域间的关系，这三个变量对移民流动有显著的影响。其次，将包含交通设施发展和历史干道存在的条件变化变量的迁移模型应用于日本各地，阐明交通设施发展对迁移的影响。因此，模型中纳入的交通状况相关变量是有价值和有效的。这一结果对今后的政策制定有参考价值。最后，导出了考虑生命意识变化的迁移模型，阐明了心理因素对迁移的影响。因此，可以说，在移民非常活跃的时候，人们的迁移是独立于他们对所生活的世界的感知和他们的实际生活的。另一方面，当移民是被动的，可以说他们对所生活的世界和实际生活的感知影响了移民。此外，利用该模型进行政治模拟，得到国土人口分布情况，并对政策进行了讨论。

The aim of this study is to construct a migration model taking the degree of relationship between regions which expresses natural condition, regional histories and cultures, and psychological factors into a model based on regional difference in utility between regions. At the same time, some socioeconomic macro factors are introduced to this model. The political simulation using this model is the aim of the study, too.First, an age group migration model is derived in rural region where many towns and villages have already faced serious concerns related to rapid increase in aging population and a low birthrate. As a result, it is proved that the relationship between regions is explained by three variables, the travel time between regions, whether the regions belong to same basin and whether the regions are connected by same number of national road networks, which have a significant influence on migration flow.Second, a migration model including variables of change in condition by development of transportation facilities and the existence of historical trunk roads is applied to all over Japan to clarify the influence of development of transportation facilities on migration. As a result, the variables related to traffic condition incorporated in the model are valuable and effective. This result will be of references to future policy.At last, a migration model in consideration of change in consciousness of life is derived to clarify the influence of psychological factors to migration. As a result, it can be said that people move independently of their perception of the world where they live and their actual life when migration is very active. On the other hand, when migration is passive, it can be said that their perception of the world where they live and their actual life affects migration. In addition, the policy is discussed based on population distribution of the national land which was obtain by the political simulation using the model.