Estimation of Distribution of Population using Migration Model in Age Group and Political Simulation in Japan

本研究的目的是建立一个基于地区间效用差异的迁移模型，将反映自然条件、地区历史文化和心理因素的地区间联系程度纳入模型中。同时，在模型中引入了一些社会经济宏观因素。首先，在农村地区，由于人口老龄化和低出生率，许多城镇和村庄已经面临着严重的问题，导出了一个年龄组迁移模型。研究结果表明，区域间的交通时间、区域是否属于同一流域以及区域之间是否有相同数量的国道网连接，这三个变量对区域间的关系有显著影响。采用了一个包含交通设施发展和历史干道存在条件变化变量的迁移模型日本全国各地的交通设施的发展对移民的影响。结果表明，模型中引入的与交通状况相关的变量是有价值的和有效的。最后，本文提出一个考虑生命意识变化的迁移模型，以阐明心理因素对迁移的影响。因此，可以说，当移徙非常活跃时，人们的移徙与他们对所居住世界的看法和他们的实际生活无关。另一方面，如果移徙是被动的，可以说，他们对所居住的世界和实际生活的看法影响移徙。此外，还根据利用该模型进行的政治模拟得到的国土人口分布情况，对政策进行了讨论。

The aim of this study is to construct a migration model taking the degree of relationship between regions which expresses natural condition, regional histories and cultures, and psychological factors into a model based on regional difference in utility between regions. At the same time, some socioeconomic macro factors are introduced to this model. The political simulation using this model is the aim of the study, too.First, an age group migration model is derived in rural region where many towns and villages have already faced serious concerns related to rapid increase in aging population and a low birthrate. As a result, it is proved that the relationship between regions is explained by three variables, the travel time between regions, whether the regions belong to same basin and whether the regions are connected by same number of national road networks, which have a significant influence on migration flow.Second, a migration model including variables of change in condition by development of transportation facilities and the existence of historical trunk roads is applied to all over Japan to clarify the influence of development of transportation facilities on migration. As a result, the variables related to traffic condition incorporated in the model are valuable and effective. This result will be of references to future policy.At last, a migration model in consideration of change in consciousness of life is derived to clarify the influence of psychological factors to migration. As a result, it can be said that people move independently of their perception of the world where they live and their actual life when migration is very active. On the other hand, when migration is passive, it can be said that their perception of the world where they live and their actual life affects migration. In addition, the policy is discussed based on population distribution of the national land which was obtain by the political simulation using the model.