Assembly rule for plant communities -for the development of invasion ecology-

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Prediction of various plant communities based on ecological traits of local flora has been important research theme for ecology. The results of such prediction should be applied for the assessments of invasion risk of new sepsis prior to introduction, and plant communities after global warming may also be predicted.Computer simulation have been major methods for such researches, however, technique to develop reliable model and to obtain feasible parameters have not yet establishes. Recently, statistical models to predict plant community have been developed since 1990s using data-mining technique. The author also started such works since early 1990s, and predicted dominance and composition of climax forests successfully (Koike 2001).As the results of this research project,1.In the Weed Risk Assessment for Ogasawara Islands, biological traits did not contributed the prediction of invasion effectively. The assumed target of invasion (wide area with various communities) may not suitable, and the target should be individual community.2.Plant species occurring a community have similar ecological traits. Thus, various plant communities have only a single functional trait. In application, we can use simple prediction model as a logistic regression.3.Based on the previously available data in warm-temperate zone in central Honshu (upper limit of warm-temperate zone), and new data corrected in this project in the warmest end of warm-temperate zone (close to subtropical) and northern end of cool temperate zone (close to boreal mixed forest zone), Climax forests have generally the similar assembly rule. Shade tolerance and tall maximum height was the key traits. Shade intolerance (probably high RGR) was the key for herbaceous communities. Community assembly rule for planted forests differ by climate zones probably by management methods of people.