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A mathematical analysis on the dependence of extinction probability on life history characteristics in plant populations

植物种群灭绝概率对生活史特征依赖性的数学分析

基本信息

批准号：
15570020
负责人：
TAKADA Takenori
金额：
$ 2.3万
依托单位：
Hokkaido Tokai University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2003
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2003 至 2004
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

We have monitored the fate (growth, survival and death) of individuals of four woodland herbaceous species with different life histories in their permanent plots. We also conducted a research to measure fruit and/or seed set in each species at the fruiting period and collected the information on fecundity. Furthermore, as for Trillium camschatcense, we measured the light intensity and soil moisture from the edge to inside of fragmented forests with various sizes in Tokachi area of Hokkaido, and evaluated the effect of the gradient of physical environment on Trillium camschatcense population.In theoretical analysis, we explored a method to evaluate the sensitivity and elasticity of population growth rate in density-dependent matrix model, which is the quantities to estimate the effect of the change of life history parameters on population growth rate. Two papers on the results are submitted and accepted in academic journals (see `References` on back page). We also conducted a statistical analysis of the census data already obtained in order to employ in simulation programs to calculate extinction probability of populations. Consequently, we obtained the correlation between fecundity and mortality rate, and the dependence rate of seed reproduction and vegetative reproduction in each species. Utilizing those obtained results, we constructed a simulation program to calculate the extinction probability of populations after 100 years. The calculated results are written in the English papers and they are submitted to academic journal and in review now.

我们对四种不同生活史的林地草本物种在其固定样地的命运（生长、生存和死亡）进行了监测。我们还进行了研究，测量了每个物种在果期的结果和/或种子，并收集了繁殖力的信息。此外，在北海道八町地区对不同大小的破碎林进行了从边缘到内部的光照强度和土壤水分测量，评价了自然环境梯度对苦参种群的影响。在理论分析中，我们探索了密度依赖矩阵模型中人口增长率敏感性和弹性的评价方法，该模型是估计生活史参数变化对人口增长率影响的量。两篇关于研究结果的论文已提交并被学术期刊接受（见封底的“参考文献”）。我们还对已经获得的人口普查数据进行了统计分析，以便在模拟程序中用于计算种群的灭绝概率。得到了各种属的繁殖力与死亡率的相关关系，以及种子繁殖与营养繁殖的依赖关系。利用这些结果，我们构建了一个模拟程序来计算100年后种群的灭绝概率。计算结果以英文论文形式发表，目前已提交学术期刊审稿。