A study on a farmland use accumulation factor by the supply and demand model considering stochastic choice

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(1)Questionnaire surveyWe conducted questionnaire survey about rice farmers with cooperation of person in charge of the ministry of agriculture, forestry and fishery and local governments to get reaction data on a paddy-field rental transaction. In addition, the data on farmland and irrigation facilities were obtained by this survey. In questionnaire survey, anonymity was considered for protection of personal information.(2)Estimation of rental transaction modelReaction functions of farmers, who want to rent paddy-fields to others and to be rented from others, were formulated based on a stochastic choice model, and those functions were estimated by questionnaire data. Furthermore, the model which decides a rent and rental agreement level at the supply and demand balance point was built, and used for simulation analysis.(3)Elucidation of an influence factorThis study specified influence factors on rental rates and rental agreement level by simulations, such as consolidation of paddy-fields by the public projects, renting evasion, changes in social and economic variable of rice price and wages, and geographical condition of paddy fields.(4)ApplicabilityApplicability of this model was examined by comparing data in real rental transactions with a result of simulation. In addition, an effect of paddy-fields consolidation projects was evaluated quantitatively by this simulation, and an economic loss in a Japanese rental market was quantified.(5)Publication of resultResults of this analysis were discussed in the international conferences, and published as articles in academic journals.