Wide-area Earthquake Disaster Management Using Empirical Estimation Model of Post-Earthquake Lifeline Functions

本研究旨在利用震后生命线函数经验估计模型，为广域地震灾害管理提供支持。首先，进行了对制造业损害影响的广域评估。在ATC-25提出的生命线重要性因子的基础上，将制造业生产水平量化为三种公用事业生命线(电、水和城市燃气供应)的八种中断模式，并结合八种生命线中断模式的概率估计模型。将预期发生的东海地震的地震烈度分布图与从事制造业的人口烈度分布图相互叠加，以评估人口暴露的影响。根据每天的生产价格估计了各类制造商的生产水平。研究结果将有助于宏观评估地震灾害的经济影响及其广域管理…从微观上看，制造商的供应链管理是现代商业环境下的基本实践。制造商的供应链设计得很好，能够有效地在正常运行中工作。然而，它的结构涉及在自然灾害和/或人为灾难造成生产流程意外中断的情况下的高度脆弱性。本研究建立供应链的系统动力学模型，以描述供应链生产流程的具体机制，并评估潜在干扰及由此产生的直接/间接损失的影响。该模型能够考虑对生产设施的物理破坏、公用工程生命线功能的丧失、运输措施的损失等不利影响，缓解措施的效果也可以进行比较，如改善设施的地震易损性、增加库存、安装备份设备等，该模型可用于编制业务连续性计划和广域供应链管理。较少

This study aims to support wide-area earthquake disaster management using empirical estimation model of post-earthquake lifeline functions. First, wide-area assessment of damage impact on manufacturing sector was performed. On the basis of lifeline importance factors proposed by ATC-25, production levels of manufacturing sector were quantified for eight patterns of disruption of three kinds of utility lifelines (electricity, water, and city gas supply), which is combined with probabilistic estimation model of eight patterns of lifeline disruptions. A distribution map of seismic intensity of the anticipated Tokai earthquake and that of population engaged in manufacturing sector were overlaid with each other to evaluate the impact in terms of population exposure. Production levels of various kinds of manufacturers were estimated in terms of daily production price. The results would be beneficial for macroscopic assessment of economic impact of earthquake disaster and its wide-area manage … More ment for manufacturing sector.From microscopic point of view, manufacturer's supply chain management is essential practice in the modern business environment. Manufacturer's supply chain is well designed to work effectively in a normal operation. However, its structure involves high vulnerability in the event of unexpected disruption of production flow caused by natural and/or man-made disaster. In this study, a system dynamics model of a supply chain is proposed to describe its detailed mechanism of production flow and to evaluate the effect of potential disturbance and resultant direct/indirect loss. The proposed model is capable to consider such adverse effects as physical damage to production facilities, loss of utility lifeline functions, loss of transportation measures, etc. The effect of mitigation measures can be compared as well ; they are improvement of seismic fragility of facilities, enhancement of stocks, installation of back-ups equipment, etc. The proposed model can be used to facilitate preparation of BCP (Business Continuity Plan) and wide-area management of supply chain. Less