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Wide-area Earthquake Disaster Management Using Empirical Estimation Model of Post-Earthquake Lifeline Functions

利用震后生命线功能经验估计模型进行广域地震灾害管理

基本信息

批准号：
16510136
负责人：
NOJIMA Nobuoto
金额：
$ 2.43万
依托单位：
Gifu University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2005
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/en/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-16510136/
关键词：
Seismic disaster management Lifeline disruption Initial outage probability Restoration process Seismic intensity distribution Population exposure Economic damage Supply Chain 巨大地震新潟県中越地震

项目摘要

This study aims to support wide-area earthquake disaster management using empirical estimation model of post-earthquake lifeline functions. First, wide-area assessment of damage impact on manufacturing sector was performed. On the basis of lifeline importance factors proposed by ATC-25, production levels of manufacturing sector were quantified for eight patterns of disruption of three kinds of utility lifelines (electricity, water, and city gas supply), which is combined with probabilistic estimation model of eight patterns of lifeline disruptions. A distribution map of seismic intensity of the anticipated Tokai earthquake and that of population engaged in manufacturing sector were overlaid with each other to evaluate the impact in terms of population exposure. Production levels of various kinds of manufacturers were estimated in terms of daily production price. The results would be beneficial for macroscopic assessment of economic impact of earthquake disaster and its wide-area manage … More ment for manufacturing sector.From microscopic point of view, manufacturer's supply chain management is essential practice in the modern business environment. Manufacturer's supply chain is well designed to work effectively in a normal operation. However, its structure involves high vulnerability in the event of unexpected disruption of production flow caused by natural and/or man-made disaster. In this study, a system dynamics model of a supply chain is proposed to describe its detailed mechanism of production flow and to evaluate the effect of potential disturbance and resultant direct/indirect loss. The proposed model is capable to consider such adverse effects as physical damage to production facilities, loss of utility lifeline functions, loss of transportation measures, etc. The effect of mitigation measures can be compared as well ; they are improvement of seismic fragility of facilities, enhancement of stocks, installation of back-ups equipment, etc. The proposed model can be used to facilitate preparation of BCP (Business Continuity Plan) and wide-area management of supply chain. Less

本研究旨在利用震后生命线函数的经验估计模型，为广域地震灾害管理提供支持。首先，对制造业的损害影响进行了广域评估。在ATC-25提出的生命线重要因子的基础上，结合生命线中断八种模式的概率估计模型，量化了三种公用事业生命线（电、水和城市燃气供应）的八种中断模式下制造业的生产水平。将预测东海地震的地震烈度分布图与制造业人口的地震烈度分布图相互叠加，以评估人口暴露对地震的影响。以日生产价格估算各类生产厂家的生产水平。研究结果对地震灾害经济影响的宏观评价和制造业的广域管理具有一定的指导意义。从微观的角度来看，制造商的供应链管理是现代商业环境中必不可少的实践。制造商的供应链设计得很好，可以在正常运作中有效地工作。然而，在自然和/或人为灾害造成生产流程意外中断的情况下，其结构具有很高的脆弱性。在本研究中，提出了一个供应链的系统动力学模型来描述其生产流程的详细机制，并评估潜在干扰和由此产生的直接/间接损失的影响。所建议的模型能够考虑诸如对生产设施的物理损坏、公用事业生命线功能的丧失、运输措施的丧失等不利影响。缓解措施的效果也可以进行比较；它们是改善设施的地震易损性，增加库存，安装备用设备等。该模型可用于BCP（业务连续性计划）的编制和供应链的广域管理。少