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Empirical Studies on Agricultural Trade Using Applied General Equilibrium Models and Nitrogen Balance Models

应用一般均衡模型和氮平衡模型对农产品贸易的实证研究

基本信息

批准号：
16580172
负责人：
YAMAMOTO Yasutaka
金额：
$ 2.3万
依托单位：
Hokkaido University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
2004
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
2004 至 2006
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Regarding Japan's proposal on agricultural trade negotiations of WTO and free trade agreements (FTA), the agricultural negotiations on these future rules and disciplines on exports should be conducted, by making sure that an appropriate balance can be achieved with the outcome of negotiations on imports, in order to reach a fair and equitable agreement that can be accepted by both exporting and importing countries alike. Export state trading enterprises also has a significant impact on agricultural trade. Therefore, appropriate disciplines should be established in order to improve its transparency and predictability. The purpose of this study is to evaluate pros and cons of agricultural trade liberalization issues from the viewpoints of Japan as a country with having a comparative disadvantage in agricultural production using computable general equilibrium models and nitrogen balance (NB) models. First, we measure the economic impact induced by the Japan and New Zealand FTA using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. Secondly, we measure the economic impact induced by the Japan and Australia FTA using the GTAP model. Thirdly, we measure the economic impact induced by Japan, New Zealand and Australia FTA using the GTAP model. Fourthly, we measure the environmental impact induced by the Japan and New Zealand FTA using not only GTAP model but also NB model. Fifthly, we measure the environmental impact induced by the Japan and Australia FTA using not only GTAP model but also NB model. Finally, we measure the key source category of greenhouse gas emissions in NZ agricultural sector using level assessment methodology.

关于日本提出的WTO和自由贸易协定（FTA）的农产品贸易谈判建议，今后的出口规则的农业谈判，应该在进口谈判的结果上取得适当的平衡，以达成出口国和进口国都能接受的公正、公平的协议。出口国营贸易企业也对农产品贸易产生重大影响。因此，应制定适当的纪律，以提高其透明度和可预测性。本研究的目的是，从农业生产处于比较劣势的日本的角度出发，利用可计算的一般均衡模型和氮平衡（NB）模型，对农产品贸易自由化的利弊进行评价。首先，使用全球贸易分析项目（GTAP）模型，对日新FTA的经济影响进行了测算。其次，利用GTAP模型测算了日澳自由贸易区的经济影响。第三，利用GTAP模型测算了日本、新西兰和澳大利亚自贸协定的经济影响。第四，我们不仅使用GTAP模型，而且使用NB模型来衡量日本和新西兰自由贸易协定对环境的影响。第五，我们不仅使用GTAP模型，而且使用NB模型来衡量日本和澳大利亚自由贸易区的环境影响。最后，我们衡量的关键源类别的温室气体排放在新西兰农业部门使用水平评估方法。