Community survey on infectious disease crisis management and the development of prediction and prevention measures

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The purpose of this research was to provide useful information on infectious disease crisis management based on community survey on infectious diseases prevention by developing mathematical models to predict the spread of infectious diseases and to evaluate the effect of proposed preventive policies. This research was carried out in three years. In the first year (2004), a community survey on the knowledge on and the preventive attitude against infectious diseases was performed. In the next year (2005), the model for simulating the spread of infectious disease was developed based on the collected information by the survey. In the last year (2006), further simulation was carried out to evaluate the effect of several proposed preventive policies.As a result of community survey, the knowledge on infectious disease and its prevention among young people (adolescents) seemed less sufficient in comparison with adults. The data obtained by the survey was used to specify the parameter values used in the mathematical models. In the simulation model, population consisted of households are used. Each individual has risk of infection in his/her household, at his/her school or work place and during transit by train. By the simulation, the effect of vaccination and reduction of outing, and so on, were analyzed quantitatively. Further analyses are still in process.