Robust Framework Design for Electric Power Market with Supply Stability

上世纪80年代以来电力市场出现的放松管制趋势，部分是因为市场预期引入联营市场会增强电力公司的竞争力，同时也会降低电价。然而，通过加州电力危机，人们已经很好地理解了联营市场原则有时会导致投资谨慎和由此导致的价格波动。一般来说，地方垄断市场中的电力公司可以很容易地投资发电厂，以满足电力需求，而电力行业的放松管制不可避免地增加了投资风险。此外，还没有制定出在战略投资中提供足够激励的规则。电力市场解除管制下的电力供应稳定是电力市场解除管制框架的重要要求，本研究旨在建立电力市场解除管制下的仿真模型，并提出稳定电价的适当市场规则的设计方法。自由化市场的市场机制需要在利益相关者的各种决策算法下稳定市场。然而，严格的市场规则阻止了利益相关者参与交易。所提出的设计方法可以避免在准备好的决策算法集下的不稳定行为。决定市场规则，以使市场价格稳定性等合意性指标最大化。用实验经济学方法建立了工厂投资决策模型。并基于基于仿真的仿真方法研究了所需的规则集。通过仿真研究，验证了该方法的有效性。

The deregulation trend in the electric power market since 1980's is partly due to the anticipation that introducing a pool market boosts the power companies' competitiveness and also lowers the electricity prices. Through California Electricity Crisis, however, it has been well understood that a pool market principle sometimes leads to the investment circumspection and the resultant price fluctuation. In general, power companies in the locally-monopolized market can easily invest in power-generation plants so as to meet the power demand, and the deregulation of the power industry inevitably makes the investment more risky. Furthermore, there have been invented no rules for making sufficient incentives in strategic investment. Stabilization of the power supply under the deregulated power market is an important requirement for the deregulated framework of the power market.This study aims to develop a simulation model of the deregulated power market and to propose the design method for the appropriate market rules that can stabilize the power prices. The market mechanism for the liberalized market needs to stabilize the market under variety of decision-making algorithms of stakeholders. However the strict market rules prevent stakeholders from joining the trading. The proposed design method may avoid the undesirable unstable behavior under the prepared decision-making algorithm-sets. The market rules are decided so that the desirability indicator such as the stability of the market price may be maximized. The decision-making models for plant-investment have been made through experimental economics method. And the desirable rule sets have been investigated based on the simulation-based simulation methods. The effectiveness of the proposed method was demonstrated through the simulation study.