Towards seamless prediction of extremes (TEX) (T02#)

实现极端情况的无缝预测 (TEX) (T02

• 批准号: 491370158
• 金额: --
• 依托单位: Bundesamt für Meteorologie u Klimatologie MeteoSwiss
• 依托单位国家: 德国
• 项目类别: CRC/Transregios (Transfer Project)
• 财政年份: 2021
• 资助国家: 德国
• 起止时间: 2020-12-31 至 2022-12-31
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://gepris.dfg.de/gepris/projekt/491370158?language=en
• 关键词: Towards; seamless; prediction; extremes; TEX

There is a growing interest in the weather forecast community to complement direct output from numerical weather prediction (NWP) models with other diagnostics tools designed specifically for extremes events. In a previous transfer project T1 of the SFB-Transregio “Waves to Weather” (W2W) a strategy was designed to classify precipitation extremes in N-Italy. Working in collaboration with the regional meteorological service ARPAE-SIMC, we developed diagnostics to follow the unfolding of the extreme event across scales from its earliest stage in the forecast, to its actual occurrence. Building on this success for a weather event in a particular region, we now propose a new transfer project T2 “Towards seamless prediction of EXtremes” (TEX). The goal is to expand and generalize this dynamical methodology to other regions of Europe and into the sub-seasonal forecast range (10-30 days), and to create prototype forecast products at ECMWF as well as at ARPAE-SIMC. TEX will provide the forecaster a “narrative” of the unfolding of an extreme event, which describes the predictability of the relevant dynamical processes. TEX will support the forecasting and warning chain with important dynamical understanding which goes beyond relying on black box forecast products from imperfect models. To this end we will develop a truly seamless diagnostic framework. The accompanying prototype products will demonstrate how dynamical thinking and process-oriented predictors can serve as a “warning bell” in critical weather events, at all forecast ranges. As a first action, TEX will transfer the insight of T1 into a novel forecasting method for extreme precipitation events in N-Italy (WP1). Next, we will develop a unified, seamless framework which systematically documents the linkage of the large-scale flow to extremes and their dynamical drivers for other European regions (WP2). This will be complemented by a prototype forecast framework which integrates existing forecast products for extremes with forecast probabilities computed for a hierarchy of indices describing the dynamical precursors of an extreme (WP3). The diagnostic framework and prototype forecast products will be implemented in close collaboration with ECMWF and ARPAE-SIMC and for both precipitation and temperature extremes. Focusing on the predictable scales of motion and processes, our proposed seamless approach will provide a way to increase preparedness for forecasting extremes from the medium to extended forecast ranges (10-30 days), ranges where classical forecast products are inaccurate. The need for better guidance across lead times is becoming even more substantial in view of the increasing likelihood of extreme events in a warming climate and remaining deficiencies in numerical models for the foreseeable future. Finally, TEX will contribute to the key goal of WMO’s HIWeather project to strengthen warning procedures across scales.

天气预报界越来越有兴趣用专门为极端事件设计的其他诊断工具来补充数值天气预报（NWP）模型的直接输出。在以前的转移项目T1的SFB-Transregio“波天气”（W2 W）的战略设计分类降水极端在意大利北部。我们与区域气象服务机构ARPAE-SIMC合作，开发了诊断方法，以跟踪极端事件从预测的最早阶段到实际发生的各个尺度的发展。在特定地区天气事件成功的基础上，我们现在提出一个新的转移项目T2“Towards seamless prediction of EXTREMES”（TEX）。我们的目标是将这种动态方法扩展和推广到欧洲其他地区和亚季节预报范围（10-30天），并在ECMWF和ARPAE-SIMC创建原型预报产品。TEX将为预报员提供一个关于极端事件发展的“叙述”，描述相关动力过程的可预测性。TEX将通过重要的动态理解来支持预测和预警链，而不仅仅是依赖来自不完美模型的黑箱预测产品。为此，我们将开发一个真正无缝的诊断框架。随附的原型产品将展示动态思维和面向过程的预报器如何在所有预报范围内作为关键天气事件的“警钟”。作为第一项行动，TEX将把T1的洞察力转化为意大利北部极端降水事件（WP 1）的新预测方法。接下来，我们将开发一个统一的，无缝的框架，系统地记录大规模流动与极端及其在欧洲其他地区的动态驱动因素之间的联系。这将由一个原型预测框架加以补充，该框架将现有的极端预测产品与为描述极端动态前兆的指数层次计算的预测概率相结合（WP 3）。诊断框架和原型预报产品将与欧洲中期天气预报中心和ARPAE-SIMC密切合作实施，并用于降水和温度极端情况。重点放在运动和过程的可预测尺度上，我们提出的无缝方法将提供一种方法，以提高对从中期到长期预报范围（10-30天）的极端天气预报的准备，这些范围是经典预报产品不准确的。鉴于气候变暖导致极端事件发生的可能性越来越大，而且在可预见的未来，数值模型仍然存在缺陷，因此更加需要在整个筹备期内提供更好的指导。最后，TEX将有助于WMO的HIWeather项目的关键目标，即加强跨尺度的预警程序。