IMPROVING THE THEORETICAL COHERENCE OF DATA-DRIVEN VAR MODELS

该项目旨在改善经验宏观经济模型中经常出现的理论和经验一致性之间的权衡。利用现有的澳大利亚模型，该项目考察了对经验连贯向量自回归（VAR）模型施加理论限制的适当手段。在作者工作的基础上，将开发一个改进的澳大利亚经济VAR模型。该模型将用于评估过去20年资产价格对通胀和经济表现的影响。将进一步关注评估货币政策在澳大利亚经济中的作用。

The project seeks to improve the tradeoff between theoretical and empirical coherence that is often present in empirical macroeconomic models. Using existing Australian models the project examines appropriate means of imposing theoretical restrictions on empirically coherent Vector Autoregression (VAR) models. Building on work by the authors, an improved VAR model of the Australian economy will be developed. This model will be used to assess particularly the impact of asset prices on inflation and economic performance over the past two decades. Further attention will be paid to assessing the role of monetary policy in the Australian economy.