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Study of Future Medical Manpower

未来医疗人力研究

基本信息

批准号：
59370050
负责人：
KIIKUNI Kenzo
金额：
$ 4.16万
依托单位：
The University of Tsukuba
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research (A)
财政年份：
1984
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1984 至 1986
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-59370050/
关键词：
Future medical manpower future trends of patients future practice pattern form of employment 医師の所得

项目摘要

Future medical manpower is a global issue. Many countries are struggling with rapid increase of manpower supply and simply could not find adequate financial resources to cope with.We have examined various aspects in analyzing this difficult and uncertain issues of future medical manpower. Following aspects were examined : a)future trends of patients, b)future practice pattern, c)form of employment of physicians, d)future needed service e.g. geriatrics and psychiatry, e)regional differences and institutional differences, f)trend of physicians income.Our findings show that future medical manpower depends on uncertainties of complex combination of above aspects. Forecast of needed physicians depends on institutional case-mix and hospitalization pattern of old age person, varies from 64,000 to 390,000 physicians in year 2000, while Ministry of Health and Welfare's supply estimate is 282,000 physicians.Needed psychiatrists also show great variation. If U.S. date can be applied, we need additional 12,500 physicians in psychiatry.We have to have reasonable flexibility in determining future medical manpower policies based on sound data-base of related health manpower.

未来的医疗人力是一个全球性问题。许多国家都在努力应对人力供应的快速增长，根本找不到足够的财政资源来应对。我们从多个方面来分析未来医疗人力的困难和不确定性问题。研究了以下几个方面：a）患者的未来趋势，b）未来的实践模式，c）医生的就业形式，d）未来需要的服务，例如医疗服务。老年病学和精神病学，e）地区差异和制度差异，f）医生收入趋势。我们的研究结果表明，未来的医疗人力取决于上述方面复杂组合的不确定性。所需医生的预测取决于机构病例组合和老年人的住院模式，2000年医生数量从64,000名到390,000名不等，而卫生和福利部的供应估计为282,000名医生。所需的精神科医生也表现出很大的变化。如果可以采用美国的数据，我们需要额外增加12,500名精神科医师。我们必须根据相关卫生人力的健全数据库来确定未来的医疗人力政策，具有合理的灵活性。