Study of Future Medical Manpower

未来的医疗人力是一个全球性的问题。很多国家都面对人手急剧增加的问题，根本没有足够的财政资源来科普。我们在分析未来医疗人手这个困难和不明朗的问题时，曾从多方面进行研究。本研究从病人的未来趋势、B的未来执业模式、医师的雇用形式、老年病科和精神病科等未来需要的服务、地区差异和机构差异、医师的收入趋势等方面进行了分析，结果表明，未来的医疗人力取决于上述因素的复杂组合的不确定性。根据机构病例组合和老年人住院模式，对医生需求的预测在2000年为64，000至390，000名医生之间，而厚生省的医生供应量估计为282，000名。如果以美国的数据计算，我们需要增加12，500名精神科医生，我们必须根据有关健康人力的健全数据库，在决定未来的医疗人力政策时，有合理的弹性。

Future medical manpower is a global issue. Many countries are struggling with rapid increase of manpower supply and simply could not find adequate financial resources to cope with.We have examined various aspects in analyzing this difficult and uncertain issues of future medical manpower. Following aspects were examined : a)future trends of patients, b)future practice pattern, c)form of employment of physicians, d)future needed service e.g. geriatrics and psychiatry, e)regional differences and institutional differences, f)trend of physicians income.Our findings show that future medical manpower depends on uncertainties of complex combination of above aspects. Forecast of needed physicians depends on institutional case-mix and hospitalization pattern of old age person, varies from 64,000 to 390,000 physicians in year 2000, while Ministry of Health and Welfare's supply estimate is 282,000 physicians.Needed psychiatrists also show great variation. If U.S. date can be applied, we need additional 12,500 physicians in psychiatry.We have to have reasonable flexibility in determining future medical manpower policies based on sound data-base of related health manpower.