Study of Future Medical Manpower

未来的医疗人力是一个全球性的问题。许多国家都在努力应对人力供应迅速增加的问题，根本找不到足够的财政资源来应对。我们在分析这一困难和不确定的未来医疗人力问题时，从多个方面进行了研究。研究包括以下几个方面：a)病人的未来趋势，b)未来的执业模式，c)医生的就业形式，d)未来需要的服务，例如老年病和精神病学，e)地区差异和机构差异，f)医生收入的趋势。需要医生的预测取决于机构病例组合和老年人的住院模式，2000年从64,000到39,000名医生不等，而卫生和福利部估计需要282,000名医生。需要的精神科医生也显示出很大的差异。如果可以应用美国的日期，我们需要额外的12,500名精神科医生。我们必须在基于健全的相关卫生人力数据库的基础上，在确定未来的医疗人力政策时拥有合理的灵活性。

Future medical manpower is a global issue. Many countries are struggling with rapid increase of manpower supply and simply could not find adequate financial resources to cope with.We have examined various aspects in analyzing this difficult and uncertain issues of future medical manpower. Following aspects were examined : a)future trends of patients, b)future practice pattern, c)form of employment of physicians, d)future needed service e.g. geriatrics and psychiatry, e)regional differences and institutional differences, f)trend of physicians income.Our findings show that future medical manpower depends on uncertainties of complex combination of above aspects. Forecast of needed physicians depends on institutional case-mix and hospitalization pattern of old age person, varies from 64,000 to 390,000 physicians in year 2000, while Ministry of Health and Welfare's supply estimate is 282,000 physicians.Needed psychiatrists also show great variation. If U.S. date can be applied, we need additional 12,500 physicians in psychiatry.We have to have reasonable flexibility in determining future medical manpower policies based on sound data-base of related health manpower.