Exchange Rates and Commodity Prices in a Volatile Business Environment

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In recent years, many Australian companies have been hurt by the large movements in the value of the Australian dollar, by their inability to forecast these movements, and by deficiencies of their hedging strategies to deal with foreign-exchange risk. This project will develop an alternative way of forecasting the $A in real time using a new methodology, based on purchasing power parity, that shows much promise. Additionally, an innovative way to analyse gold prices will be further developed, which when combined with the $A forecasts, offers a potentially valuable method of hedging foreign exchange and commodity price risk faced by Australian gold producers.