Trade Surpluses, the Exchange Rate, and Open Macroeconomic Policies Including the Expansion of Domestic Demand -- Theory and Empirical Studies
贸易顺差、汇率与扩大内需等开放宏观经济政策——理论与实证研究
基本信息
- 批准号:61301073
- 负责人:
- 金额:$ 5.12万
- 依托单位:
- 依托单位国家:日本
- 项目类别:Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research (A)
- 财政年份:1986
- 资助国家:日本
- 起止时间:1986 至 1987
- 项目状态:已结题
- 来源:
- 关键词:
项目摘要
Our 2-year project had two main aims. One was to study the fundamental mechanisms of open macroeconomic issues such as the causes of trade imbalances, the effects of capital mobility, and the observed volatility of the exchange rate movements and prescribe proper policies which best stabilize the economy. The other aim was to construct a macroeconometric model so as to capture the actual impacts of these policies. In order to attain these aims, we had a number of meetings and heated discussions in the past two years.Our macroeconometric model was so constructed as to be compact in size and yet it fits the actual behavior of the economy appropriately. This parsimonious principle led us to build, first, the CORE model which consists of about 30 equations, and to add a block of equations when a specific sector of the economy is of particular interest. Each sector is connected only through the CORE model. This turned out to work efficiently in the senses that the performances of the model showed no less satisfactory results of policy simulations than those of the standard large-scale econometric models and that the small-scale model allows for rather sophisticated econometric techniques that are sometimes essential from the requirement by the economic theory.As for the individual research, most menbers shared the interests in the dominant roles played by the expectations formation in the foreign exchange markets.Sometimes, self-fulfilling expectations generate speculative bubbles and they may in turn generate huge capital flows and the balance-of-payments imbalances. Unfortunately, however, this aspect was not fully incorporated into our macroeconometric model. This provides us incentives and needs to update and improve our macroeconometric model in the near future.
这个为期两年的项目有两个主要目标。一个是研究开放宏观经济问题的基本机制,如贸易不平衡的原因、资本流动的影响和观察到的汇率波动,并制定最能稳定经济的适当政策。另一个目的是建立一个宏观经济计量模型,以反映这些政策的实际影响。为了达到这些目的,我们在过去两年中召开了多次会议,进行了热烈的讨论,我们的宏观经济计量模型构造得很紧凑,但又很适合经济的实际行为。这一节约原则使我们首先建立了由大约30个方程组成的核心模型,并在经济的特定部门特别感兴趣时添加了一组方程。每个部门都只通过核心模式连接。结果表明,该模型在政策模拟方面的表现并不比标准的大规模计量经济学模型差,而且小规模模型考虑到了经济理论所要求的相当复杂的计量经济学技术,这在某种意义上是有效的。至于个人研究,预期形成在外汇市场中的主导作用是大多数人的共同利益所在,有时,自我实现的预期会产生投机泡沫,并可能反过来产生巨大的资本流动和国际收支失衡。然而,不幸的是,这方面并没有完全纳入我们的宏观经济计量模型。这为我们提供了激励,并需要在不久的将来更新和改进我们的宏观计量经济模型。
项目成果
期刊论文数量(22)
专著数量(0)
科研奖励数量(0)
会议论文数量(0)
专利数量(0)
秋山太郎: エコノミア(横浜国立大学経済学会). 96. 24-32 (1988)
秋山太郎:《经济学》(横滨国立大学经济学会)。 96. 24-32 (1988)。
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平山健二郎: Kausai University Revirw of Econoluics and Business. 16. 1-16 (1988)
平山健二郎:考西大学经济与商业评论。16. 1-16 (1988)
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Kanoh, Satoru: "On the Reduction of the Width of Confidence Bands in Linear Regression" Journal of American Statistical Association. (1988)
Kanoh Satoru:“关于线性回归中置信带宽度的减小”美国统计协会杂志。
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- 影响因子:0
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鬼塚雄丞: 米国の経済構造-日米の経営収支不均衡問題との関連において(世界経済研究協会). 7-24 (1987)
Yusuke Onizuka:美国的经济结构 - 关于日本和美国之间的商业平衡不平衡问题(世界经济研究会)7-24(1987)。
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相似海外基金
Balance of payments imbalances and the global economy
国际收支失衡与全球经济
- 批准号:
23530357 - 财政年份:2011
- 资助金额:
$ 5.12万 - 项目类别:
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)