Balance of payments imbalances and the global economy

第一篇论文根据国际收支阶段对175个国家在短短30年的时间内进行了分类，这些阶段经常被用来提出一个假设，即阶段取决于一个国家的发展进程。利用非参数估计，本研究证明了一个国家的国际收支阶段与其经济发展具有非单调关系，并且处于不成熟债权国-贷款人阶段的国家享有比其发展中任何其他阶段更高的人均GDP。第二篇论文考察了日本的贸易，看数据中是否存在净出口与贸易条件之间的J/ s曲线现象。基于VAR稳定性检验的结果，将总贸易数据内生地分成三个子周期数据集，后两个子周期数据集呈现J/ s曲线。J/ s曲线可能源于中国和石油出口国在日本贸易中所占份额的增加。

The first paper classifies 175 countries over a period of just 30 years according to the balance of payments stages that are frequently used in proposing a hypothesis that the stage depends on the progression in a nation's development. Using a nonparametric estimation, this investigation demonstrates that a nation's stage in the balance of payments has a non-monotonic relationship with its economic development, and that a country at the stage of immature creditor-lender enjoys a higher GDP per capita than at any other stage in its development. The second paper investigates Japanese trade to see whether the J/S-curve phenomenon between net exports and the terms of trade is observed in the data. Based on the results of a VAR stability test, the aggregate trade data are endogenously split into three sub-period data sets, with the J/S-curve present in the last two. The J/S-curve may stem from the increasing share of China and the oil-exporting countries in Japanese trade.