Balance of payments imbalances and the global economy

国际收支失衡与全球经济

• 批准号: 23530357
• 负责人: ONO Masanori
• 金额: $ 1万
• 依托单位: Seikei University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 2011
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 2011 至 2013
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-23530357/
• 关键词: 国際収支; 国際貿易; 経済発展; 価格; 発展段階

The first paper classifies 175 countries over a period of just 30 years according to the balance of payments stages that are frequently used in proposing a hypothesis that the stage depends on the progression in a nation's development. Using a nonparametric estimation, this investigation demonstrates that a nation's stage in the balance of payments has a non-monotonic relationship with its economic development, and that a country at the stage of immature creditor-lender enjoys a higher GDP per capita than at any other stage in its development. The second paper investigates Japanese trade to see whether the J/S-curve phenomenon between net exports and the terms of trade is observed in the data. Based on the results of a VAR stability test, the aggregate trade data are endogenously split into three sub-period data sets, with the J/S-curve present in the last two. The J/S-curve may stem from the increasing share of China and the oil-exporting countries in Japanese trade.

第一篇论文根据国际收支阶段对175个国家在短短30年的时间内进行了分类，这些阶段经常被用来提出一个假设，即阶段取决于一个国家的发展进程。利用非参数估计，本研究证明了一个国家的国际收支阶段与其经济发展具有非单调关系，并且处于不成熟债权国-贷款人阶段的国家享有比其发展中任何其他阶段更高的人均GDP。第二篇论文考察了日本的贸易，看数据中是否存在净出口与贸易条件之间的J/ s曲线现象。基于VAR稳定性检验的结果，将总贸易数据内生地分成三个子周期数据集，后两个子周期数据集呈现J/ s曲线。J/ s曲线可能源于中国和石油出口国在日本贸易中所占份额的增加。

项目成果

Examining the bakance of payments stages hypothesis, Faculty of Economics

检验支付阶段假说的平衡性，经济学院

• 发表时间: 2014
• 期刊: Discussion Paper Series
• 作者: Ogura;Y.;and Uchida;H;中井英雄・齊藤愼;Masanori Ono
• 通讯作者: Masanori Ono

Examining the balance of payments stages hypothesis

检验国际收支阶段假设

• 发表时间: 2014
• 期刊: Discussion paper series, Faculty of Economics, Seikei University
• 作者: Jun-ichi Itaya;Makoto Okamura;Chikara Yamaguchi;Masanori Ono
• 通讯作者: Masanori Ono

Balance of Payments Stages in the World over Three Decades

三十年来世界国际收支平衡阶段

• 发表时间: 2013
• 作者: Ogura;Y;齊藤愼;大野正智
• 通讯作者: 大野正智

Revisiting the J-Curve for Japan

重温日本的 J 曲线

• 发表时间: 2010
• 期刊: 福島大学経済学会ディスカッションペーパー No. 66
• 作者: 大野正智;SaangJoon Baak
• 通讯作者: SaangJoon Baak