DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORWARDING CONTROL MODEL IN SHORT-RUN ABOUT THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES

在报告中，我们将尝试建立批发价格预测模型，以控制水果和蔬菜的转发。到目前为止，我们使用的是已公布的月度数据。但水果和蔬菜的价格在每个批发商中每天都在波动。因此，在这份报告中，我们使用了从“易腐食品营销信息系统”中获得的一些日常数据，这些日常数据是非常常用的，以明确短期价格波动。首先，城市批发价和地方批发价之间的价格波动是相互作用的。此外，天气状况对批发价也有不利影响。我们可以从A时间序列分析的结果中获得一些信息。它们是周变化和短期周期波动。关于一周的变化，在批发期和周末，水果和蔬菜的配送都比一周内活跃。另一方面，短期周期性价格波动的周期约为1200Ay。因此，我们可以通过吸收那些不够充分的信息来建立计量经济学模型。模型为FOLLOWWHOLESALE PRICF=(新增供应量、前一天城市批发价、趋势、天气状况、每周假人、事件假人等因素)

IN THE REPORT, WE SHALL TRY TO MAKE A WHOLESALE PRICE FORECAST MODEL IN ORDER TO CONTROL FORWARDING THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES. WE HAD USED THE PUBLISHED MONTHLY DATA UP TO THIS POINT. BUT THE PRICE FLUCTUATION OF THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES HAPPENS DAILY IN EACH WHOLESALES. SO,WE HAVE USED SOME DAILY DATA IN THIS REPORT THAT WE CAN OBTAIN FROM THE "PERISHABLE FOODS MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEM" THE DAILY DATA IS VERY USERUL FOR MAKE CLEAR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE FLUCTUATION.A SUMMARY OF THE RESULT IS SHOWN AS BELOW. IN THE FIRST PLACE, THE PRICE FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN THE URBAN WHOLESALE PRICE AND THE LOCAL WHOLESALE PRICE INTERACT EACH OTHER. ALSO,THE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE AN EFFECT AGAINST TO THE WHOLESALE PRICES. WE CAN GET SOME INFORMATIONS FROM THE RESULTS OF A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. THEY ARE A WEEKLY VARIATION AND A SHORT-RUN CYCLICAL FLUCTUATION. CONCERNING ABOUT A WEEKLY VARIATION, AT THE BIGINNING AND END OF WEEK, THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES DISTRIBUTION ARE ACTIVELY THAN WITHIN WEEK IN A WHOLESALE. ON THE OTHER HAND, A SHORT-RUN CYCLICAL PRICE FLUCTUATION HAS A ABOUT 1200AY PERIOD. ACORDINGLY, WE CAN MAKE THE ECONOMETRICS MODEL BY TAKE IN THOSE INFORMATIONS NOT EVERY ENOUGH. THE MODEL IS AS FOLLOWWHOLESALE PRICF=( NEW SUPPLY VOLUMES, URBAN WHOLESALE PRICE OF THE DAY BEFORE, TREND, WEATHER CONDITIONS, WEEKLY DUMMY, EVENT DUMMY, AND SO ON FACTORES)