DEVELOPMENT OF THE FORWARDING CONTROL MODEL IN SHORT-RUN ABOUT THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES

果蔬短期运输控制模型的开发

• 批准号: 61560249
• 负责人: IMAI Raizo
• 金额: $ 1.54万
• 依托单位: TOTTORI UNIVERSITY
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1986
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1986 至 1987
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-61560249/
• 关键词: Distribution of the Fruit and Vegetables; Correlation Inter-Wholesales; Time Series Analysis; Short-run Cyclical Fluctuation; 市場価格予測モデル; 季節変動; 卸売市場; 価格弾力性; 所得弾力性

IN THE REPORT, WE SHALL TRY TO MAKE A WHOLESALE PRICE FORECAST MODEL IN ORDER TO CONTROL FORWARDING THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES. WE HAD USED THE PUBLISHED MONTHLY DATA UP TO THIS POINT. BUT THE PRICE FLUCTUATION OF THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES HAPPENS DAILY IN EACH WHOLESALES. SO,WE HAVE USED SOME DAILY DATA IN THIS REPORT THAT WE CAN OBTAIN FROM THE "PERISHABLE FOODS MARKETING INFORMATION SYSTEM" THE DAILY DATA IS VERY USERUL FOR MAKE CLEAR THE SHORT-RUN PRICE FLUCTUATION.A SUMMARY OF THE RESULT IS SHOWN AS BELOW. IN THE FIRST PLACE, THE PRICE FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN THE URBAN WHOLESALE PRICE AND THE LOCAL WHOLESALE PRICE INTERACT EACH OTHER. ALSO,THE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE AN EFFECT AGAINST TO THE WHOLESALE PRICES. WE CAN GET SOME INFORMATIONS FROM THE RESULTS OF A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS. THEY ARE A WEEKLY VARIATION AND A SHORT-RUN CYCLICAL FLUCTUATION. CONCERNING ABOUT A WEEKLY VARIATION, AT THE BIGINNING AND END OF WEEK, THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLES DISTRIBUTION ARE ACTIVELY THAN WITHIN WEEK IN A WHOLESALE. ON THE OTHER HAND, A SHORT-RUN CYCLICAL PRICE FLUCTUATION HAS A ABOUT 1200AY PERIOD. ACORDINGLY, WE CAN MAKE THE ECONOMETRICS MODEL BY TAKE IN THOSE INFORMATIONS NOT EVERY ENOUGH. THE MODEL IS AS FOLLOWWHOLESALE PRICF=( NEW SUPPLY VOLUMES, URBAN WHOLESALE PRICE OF THE DAY BEFORE, TREND, WEATHER CONDITIONS, WEEKLY DUMMY, EVENT DUMMY, AND SO ON FACTORES)

在报告中，我们将尝试建立批发价格预测模型，以控制水果和蔬菜的转发。到目前为止，我们使用的是每月公布的数据。但在每个批发市场，水果和蔬菜的价格每天都在波动。因此，我们在本报告中使用了一些从“易腐食品营销信息系统”中获取的日常数据，这些日常数据对于明确短期价格波动非常有用。结果摘要如下所示。首先，城市批发价格和地方批发价格之间的价格波动是相互影响的。此外，天气状况对批发价格也有影响。我们可以从时间序列分析的结果中得到一些信息。它们是每周的变化和短期的周期性波动。考虑到周变化，在一周的开始和结束时，水果和蔬菜的分销比批发周内活跃。另一方面，短期周期性价格波动的周期约为1200天。因此，我们在建立计量经济学模型时不能充分考虑这些信息。模型如下：批发价格=（新增供应量、前一天城市批发价格、趋势、天气情况、周虚拟、事件虚拟等因素）

项目成果

Kozo KASAHARA: PRICE FLUCTUATION AND TIME SERIES ANALYSIS ABOUT THE FLUIT AND VEGETABLES (in JAPANESE) recorded in "THE AGRICULTURE AND CORRESPOND TO AGRICULTURAL ANDMINISTRATION". NORIN TOKEI KYOKAI, 16 (1988)

Kozo KASAHARA：《农业和对应农业和政府》中记录的水果和蔬菜的价格波动和时间序列分析（日语）。

Raizo IMAI: ON THE GROWTH OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND FUNCTION OF RURAL FARMER'S GROUP (in JAPANESE) recorded in "THE ACTUAL OF AGRICULTURE AND CORRESPOND TO AGRICULTURAL ADMINISTRATION". NORIN TOKEI KYOKAI, 12 (1988)

今井雷三：《农业生产实况与农业行政对应》中记载的农业生产力的增长和农村农民团体的功能（日文）。

Kozo KASAHARA: "INTERRELATIONSHIP OF WHOLESALES AND PRICE FORECAST MODEL BY THE USE OF A DAILY TERM DATA (in JAPANESE)" BULL.FAC.AGRIC.,TOTTORI UNIV.41. (1988)

Kozo KASAHARA：“使用每日术语数据的批发和价格预测模型的相互关系（日语）”BULL.FAC.AGRIC.,TOTTORI UNIV.41。

笠原浩三: 物価問題これだけは知っておこう. 第15号. 1-24 (1987)

Kozo Kasahara：价格问题：知道这一点即可。15. 1-24 (1987)

今井〓蔵: 「農業と経済」富民協会. 53-10. 60-68 (1987)

Imai, T.：“农业与经济”Fumin Kyokai 53-10 (1987)。