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Assessment of Projected Impacts of Large-scale Anthropogenic Climatic Changes on Natural Ecosystems, Agriculture, and Social Systems of Japan

大规模人为气候变化对日本自然生态系统、农业和社会系统的预计影响评估

基本信息

批准号：
01300007
负责人：
UCHIJIMA Zenbei
金额：
$ 7.74万
依托单位：
Ochanomizu University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Co-operative Research (A)
财政年份：
1989
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1989 至 1991
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Research effort was concentrated on the elucidation of projected impacts of anthropogenic climatic warming due to increasing CO_2 on natural vegetation and agriculture of Japan. Effects of the detonation of atomic bombs (Hiroshima and Nagasaki) and accident of the Chernobyl's atomic pile were also studied using global and local models of atmospheric diffusion. The results can be summarized as follows :1. Thermal environment of ponded shallow water was studied to make clear possible effects of climatic warming of heat balance and temperature of paddy fields. It was expected that climatic warming should cause a temperature rise of about 3-4ﾟC over the Japan. Evaporation from water surface should increase by 4-6 percent per ﾟC with the rise of water temperature.2. Crop-weather models were used to investigate effects of increased CO_2 level and projected climatic changes on crop yield (rice, maize, and wheat). Rice yield is expected to decrease due to heat stress in a warmed climate. The introduction of advanced agriculture practices is needed to mitigate such bad effects of warmed climate. Although the yield of maize and wheat crops would be lowered by decrease in rain fall during the growing period, such bad effects can be compensated by application of irrigation water.3. The migration of climatically suitable area with projected climatic warming was studied for several tree species. It was found that the suitable area for silver fir and Japanese oak may decrease by 50-60 percent compared with that at present, and that the area of laurel forest zone was not very sensitive to climatic warming.4. Atmospheric diffusion models were used to estimate the area of radioactive contamination due to the detonation of atomic bombs and the accident of the Chernobyl's atomic pile. The results were in good agreement with the spatial distribution of radioactivity measured after the detonation of atomic bombs.

研究重点是阐明CO_2增加对日本自然植被和农业的预估影响。还利用全球和当地的大气扩散模式研究了原子弹爆炸（广岛和长崎）和切尔诺贝利原子堆事故的影响。研究结果总结如下：1。通过对池塘浅水热环境的研究，明确了气候变暖对稻田热平衡和温度的可能影响。预计气候变暖将导致日本上空温度上升约3-4℃。随着水温的升高，每盎司水的表面蒸发量应增加4- 6%。采用作物-天气模式研究co2浓度升高和预估气候变化对作物（水稻、玉米和小麦）产量的影响。在气候变暖的情况下，由于热应激，预计水稻产量会下降。需要引进先进的农业实践来减轻气候变暖的不良影响。虽然玉米和小麦作物的产量会因生长期的降雨量减少而降低，但这种不良影响可以通过灌溉水的施用来弥补。研究了气候适宜区在预估气候变暖条件下几种树种的迁移情况。研究发现，与目前相比，银杉和栎树的适宜生长面积可能减少50 ~ 60%，月桂林带的面积对气候变暖不太敏感。大气扩散模型被用来估计由于原子弹爆炸和切尔诺贝利原子堆事故造成的放射性污染区域。结果与原子弹爆炸后放射性的空间分布相吻合。