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Economic Analysis of Fertility Rate Fluctuation

生育率波动的经济分析

基本信息

批准号：
01530003
负责人：
NISHIMURA Kazuo
金额：
$ 0.96万
依托单位：
Kyoto University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1989
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1989 至 1990
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-01530003/
关键词：
Fertility Rate Easterlin Hypothesis Gary Becker イ-スタリン仮説ベッカ-

项目摘要

Traditional approaches to growth theory have modeled the process of growth as arising from decisions to invest in physical capital and from technological progress. A recent model by Barro and Becker (1989) has incorporated fertility decisions, or decisions about the number of children to have, into a growth theoretic context. The welfare of children (through their per capita consumption) is incorporated into their parents utility. Since consumption must be sacrificed to educate children, the investment decisions become more complex in such a setting. The model can further be enriched by allowing parents to invest in the human capital of their children in order to raise their productivity. We propose to study the implications of introducing technologial progress and human capital into the model of endogenous fertility.One of the implication of technical progress is that steady states are no longer in levels ; they represent growths path of per capita variables like output, consumption on capital. We then show that the dynamic behavior of physical capital will be monotonic or oscillatory, depending on the elasticity of a certain "altruism" function which may also be viewed as the elasticity of an inverse demand curve for children. This elasticity, which is equal to unity in the Barro and Becker model, also plays a major role in determining the existence of multiple steady states. From an empirical perspective multiple steady states may be useful to explain persistent differentials between growth rates of some poor and rich countries.

传统的增长理论将增长过程建模为投资于实物资本的决策和技术进步。巴罗和贝克尔（Becker，1989）的一个最新模型将生育决定或关于生育孩子数量的决定纳入了增长理论背景。儿童的福利（通过他们的人均消费）被纳入他们的父母效用。由于必须牺牲消费来教育孩子，在这种情况下，投资决策变得更加复杂。通过允许父母投资于子女的人力资本，以提高其生产力，可以进一步丰富这一模式。本文将技术进步和人力资本引入内生生育率模型，研究技术进步的意义之一是稳态不再是水平的，而是代表了人均产出、资本消耗等变量的增长路径。然后，我们表明，物质资本的动态行为将是单调的或振荡的，这取决于一定的“利他主义”功能，也可以被视为弹性的逆需求曲线的儿童的弹性。这种弹性在巴罗和贝克尔模型中等于1，在确定多个稳态的存在方面也起着重要作用。从经验的角度来看，多重稳定状态可能有助于解释一些穷国和富国增长率之间持续存在的差异。