Economic Analysis of Fertility Rate Fluctuation

生育率波动的经济分析

基本信息

批准号：
01530003
负责人：
NISHIMURA Kazuo
金额：
$ 0.96万
依托单位：
Kyoto University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1989
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1989 至 1990
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-01530003/
关键词：
Fertility Rate Easterlin Hypothesis Gary Becker イ-スタリン仮説ベッカ-

项目摘要

Traditional approaches to growth theory have modeled the process of growth as arising from decisions to invest in physical capital and from technological progress. A recent model by Barro and Becker (1989) has incorporated fertility decisions, or decisions about the number of children to have, into a growth theoretic context. The welfare of children (through their per capita consumption) is incorporated into their parents utility. Since consumption must be sacrificed to educate children, the investment decisions become more complex in such a setting. The model can further be enriched by allowing parents to invest in the human capital of their children in order to raise their productivity. We propose to study the implications of introducing technologial progress and human capital into the model of endogenous fertility.One of the implication of technical progress is that steady states are no longer in levels ; they represent growths path of per capita variables like output, consumption on capital. We then show that the dynamic behavior of physical capital will be monotonic or oscillatory, depending on the elasticity of a certain "altruism" function which may also be viewed as the elasticity of an inverse demand curve for children. This elasticity, which is equal to unity in the Barro and Becker model, also plays a major role in determining the existence of multiple steady states. From an empirical perspective multiple steady states may be useful to explain persistent differentials between growth rates of some poor and rich countries.

传统的增长理论方法已经建立了增长过程，这是由于投资物理资本和技术进步而产生的。 Barro和Becker（1989）的最新模型已纳入了生育能力的决定，或者关于儿童人数拥有的决定，将其纳入增长理论背景。儿童的福利（通过人均消费量）纳入了父母的公用事业中。由于必须牺牲消费来教育儿童，因此在这种情况下，投资决策变得更加复杂。可以通过允许父母投资子女的人力资本以提高其生产力来进一步丰富该模型。我们建议研究将技术进步和人力资本引入内源性生育能力的含义。技术进步的含义是稳态不再处于水平上。它们代表人均变量的增长路径，例如产出，资本消费。然后，我们证明物理资本的动态行为将是单调的或振荡的，具体取决于某种“利他主义”功能的弹性，这也可能被视为儿童逆需求曲线的弹性。这种弹性等于巴罗和贝克尔模型中的统一性，在确定多个稳态的存在中也起着重要作用。从经验的角度来看，多个稳态可能有助于解释一些贫穷国家和富裕国家的增长率之间的持续差异。