A Study on the Appropriate Construction Period of Building Projects

本研究的目的是利用建筑施工记录的统计分析和计算机技术来估计建筑项目的适宜工期。对建筑记录的统计调查有两个不同的来源：建筑师办公室的记录和主要承包商的记录。选取近二十年来的桩基记录，根据结构类型和工程规模，采用九属性多元回归分析求解公式估算统计周期。对后期记录进行多元回归分析，研究各施工工序实际值与估计值之间的关系。将统计分析结果存入数据库，建立了一个基于知识的系统，利用工作包和过程包实现了施工过程的计划和调度。作为实证检验，将该系统应用于某建筑项目的工期估算，探索专家系统估算适宜工期的可行性。在此基础上，提出了工期估算的概念，引导了工期优化的思想，并对施工记录数据库和施工过程系统仿真进行了研究。

This study aims at estimating the appropriate construction period of building projects based on the statistical analysis of construction records and computer technologies.The statistical investigations on construction records were carried out with two different sources: records from an architect office and records from major contractors. The former records were selected from the piles for last twenty years and multiple-regresion analysis with nine attributes resolved formula to estimate statistical periods according to the structural type and the scale of the projects. The later records were also applied to the multiple-regression analysis and the relationship between the actual value and the estimated value in each construction process were studied.The results on statistical analysis were utilized in the database for a knowledge-based system, which was implemented for planning and scheduling of construction process by using the work packages and process packages. As a empirical test, the system was applied to estimate the construction period of a given building project, and pursued the feasibility of the expert system for estimating appropriate construction periods.Furthermore, the concept of estimating construction periods was developed to lead the philosophy of optimizing construction periods, and the database for construction records and system simulations of construction process were also investigated.