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Target Zone and International Policy Coordination

目标区和国际政策协调

基本信息

批准号：
02630048
负责人：
ITO Takatoshi
金额：
$ 0.96万
依托单位：
Hitotsubashi University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for General Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1990
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1990 至 1991
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-02630048/
关键词：
Target Zone Policy Coordination Exchange rate Current Accounts J-curve effects Hysteresis Jーカ-ブ効果円・ドルレ-ト G5 合理的期待財政政策金融政策介入

项目摘要

In the literature, the virtue of policy coordination and exchange rate stability among industrialized countries has been emphasized. The need for policy coordination and the exchange rate stability was most evident during the first half of the 1980s. Policy coordination would increase welfare of the economies as it will internalize externalities of economic policies. The target zone will prevent the exchange rate misalignment which will cause real effects, and correction of the exchange rate level will take effects only with a log. In fact, it took two years before a sharp depreciation of the dollar (appreciation of the yen) contributed to correcting the imbalance of the current accounts.This research project investigates the possible detrimental effect of policy coordination among G7 countries (Japan, U. S., Germany, France, U. K., Canada, Italy). Theoretically it has been shown that the policy coordination may not increase the welfare of the economies involved in coordination. This possibility indeed emerged during the period, 1987-1989 when the G7 countries adopted a target zone.One case where coordination (in the exchange rate) results in a worse outcome is a circumstance that country A's mistake (such as deliberate inflation) in economic policy is not punished by the depreciation of the currency due to country B's adjustment (inflation) to keep the currency at the agreed level. From 1986 to 1988, G7 countries carried out coordinated interest rate cuts, which contributed to an asset inflation in Japan. The target zone policy indeed caused a detrimental effect in Japan, when the target was mistaken.

文献中强调了工业化国家之间政策协调和汇率稳定的好处。在1980年代前半期，政策协调和汇率稳定的必要性最为明显。政策协调将增加经济体的福利，因为它将使经济政策的外部性内在化。目标区将防止汇率失调，这将导致真实的影响，汇率水平的校正将只在日志中生效。实际上，美元的大幅贬值（日元的升值）对经常项目收支的不平衡起到了纠正作用，这需要两年的时间。美国，德国、法国、美国K.，加拿大、意大利）。理论上已经表明，政策协调可能不会增加参与协调的经济体的福利。这种可能性在1987-1989年G7国家采用目标区的时期确实出现过。（汇率方面的）协调导致更糟糕结果的一种情况是，A国在经济政策上的错误（如故意的通货膨胀）没有受到惩罚，因为B国为了将货币保持在商定的水平而进行调整（通货膨胀），导致货币贬值。从1986年到1988年，G7国家进行了协调一致的降息，这导致了日本的资产膨胀。目标区政策确实在日本造成了不利影响，因为目标是错误的。