Engineering Determination of Scenario Earthquakes and Development of Seismic Hazard GIS

研究结果表明：(1)“概率情景地震”的概念可以应用于“低频-高影响灾害”的评估。这一概念是有用的，因为它构成了情景地震和概率地震危险分析之间的直接桥梁，这两个问题已经在完全不同的背景下进行了讨论。以神户为例，证明了概率情景地震的有效性。(2)发展了一种简单而严谨的方法来评估地震动非线性土体放大效应。这一课题在区域减灾规划的微区划中具有重要意义。本文提出的方法由基底运动与自由表面运动之间的换算系数组成，采用频率相关的等效线性化技术进行非线性地面响应分析。(3)论证了地理信息系统(GIS)在概率情景地震和风险一致性地震运动评估中的有效性。提出了使用概率情景地震的危险图，并对日本西部的一个地区进行了案例研究。

The results of this study may be summarized as follows.(1) It was proved that the concept of "probabilistic scenario earthquakes" can be applied to the assessment of "low frequency-high impact disasters." The concept is useful in that it constitutes a straightforward bridge between scenario earthquakes and probabilistic seismic hazard analysis which have been discussed in entirely separate contexts. The usefulness of probabilistic scenario earthquakes have been demonstrated through case studies for Kobe as linked with the occurrence of the Hyogoken-nanbu Earthquake as well as other major Japanese cities.(2) A simple and rigorous method was developed for evaluation of nonlinear soil amplification of earthquake ground motions. The subject is important in microzonation for regional disaster mitigation planning. The method proposed herein consists of the conversion factor between the basement motion and the free surface motion.A frequency dependent equivalent linearization technique was used for the analysis of nonlinear ground response.(3) Usefulness of the geographic information systems (GIS) was demonstrated for assessment of the probabilistic scenario earthquakes and risk-consistent earthquake ground motions. Hazard maps using probabilistic scenario earthquakes were proposed, and a case study has been performed for a region in western Japan.