Comparative Econometric Analysis of Industrial Restructuring and Deindustrialization in Japan

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This research is intended to analize econometrically the domestic and international impacts of industrial restructuing occured since around 1970 and to discuss the policy implications derived on the so-called deindustrialization in Japan. The main focus is given to the steeland automobile industries.World steel industry in the 1980s saw the severe trade conflicts among Japan, the USA and EC on one hand and the rapid growth of demand and supply in the east Asian countries including China on the other. The Japanese steel industry has been in excess of production capacity caused by the transplants of machinery industries and the decreasing steel input per unit in the industries. Faced with these these structural changes, steel makers in Japan have to adjust their production policy so as to build a harmonious division of labor with the Asian countries.The current car market in the developed countries has been in the matured stage, while the growing trend has been observed and predicted in the Asian developing countries. Japanese car makers have actively invested since 1980 in the USA and Asian countries to ease the trade conflicts with the Big-3 and to assist motorization in the Asian protective market. The transplant of Japanese auto industry discourages exports from Japan and as a result of it job loss may occur in Japan, which is estimated, in the case of about one million car production cut, to be about 5.5 thousand in the auto industry and 150 thousands in the whole industry.We should take industrial structure change for granted and seek to find a way to coperate with trade partner countries in the division of labor.