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Theoretical, Empirical and Historical Research on the European Monetary System, European Currency Unit and European Monetary Union

欧洲货币体系、欧洲货币单位和欧洲货币联盟的理论、实证和历史研究

基本信息

批准号：
07630085
负责人：
IZAWA Hideki
金额：
$ 1.28万
依托单位：
Kobe University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1995
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1995 至 1997
项目状态：
已结题

项目摘要

Izawa wrote three papers. First of all, he analyzed game-theoretically and empirically the european currency crises in 1992 and 1993. Instead of fundamentals theory by Krugman and self-fulfillling expectation theory by Obstfeld, he presented a signalling game model at an academic conference in 1997. Then, he investigated which countries of EU would satisfy five conditions of Maastricht Treaty and participate in EMU in January 1999. Based on recent 1997 estimates, almost all countries are likely to sarisfy 3% general government deficit of GDP,but they are not likely to satisfy 60% general government debt of GDP.At present, 11 countries except U.K., Denmark, Sweden and Greece are regard as good candidates of EMU.The EU Council will decide participation countries in May 1998. There are some issues on monetary policy of European Central Bank. Lastly, he estimated the effect of the european single currency (euro) on international monetary system. Euro may become a second international currency in the long run.Fujita made researches on the EMS and the ECU from the viewpoints of theories of international currency and international monetary system. On the EMS,we clarified the reasons and its implications of the fact that the EMS has changed from a symmetrical system into an asymmetrical system since mid-1980's. On the ECU,we clarified that the unsuccessful experiment of the private ECU being the single european currency is based on the immature characteristic of the ECU as a currency. Also we clarified the drawbacks of the idea of parallel currency or competitive currencies. After the EMU starts in 1999 the asymmetries in adjustment process or functions of an international currency will disappear. But we pointed out that the asymmetries in the industrial structures of participating countries may make the EMU vulnerable to the asymmetric real shocks.

Izawa写了三篇论文。首先，他从理论和经验上对1992年和1993年的欧洲货币危机进行了博弈分析。他在1997年的一次学术会议上提出了一个信号博弈模型，而不是克鲁格曼的基本面理论和奥布斯特菲尔德的自我实现预期理论。随后，他于1999年1月考察了欧盟哪些国家将满足《马斯特里赫特条约》的五个条件，加入欧洲货币联盟。根据1997年的最新估计，几乎所有国家都有可能削减占GDP的3%的一般政府赤字，但不太可能满足占GDP 60%的一般政府债务。目前，除英国、丹麦、瑞典和希腊之外的11个国家被认为是欧元区的良好候选国。欧盟理事会将于1998年5月决定参与国家。欧洲央行的货币政策存在一些问题。最后，他估计了欧洲单一货币(欧元)对国际货币体系的影响。从长远来看，欧元可能成为第二种国际货币。藤田从国际货币理论和国际货币体系的角度对EMS和ECU进行了研究。在欧洲货币体系方面，我们阐明了自20世纪80年代中期S以来欧洲货币体系从对称制向非对称制转变的原因及其启示；在欧洲货币联盟方面，我们阐明了私人欧洲货币联盟作为单一欧洲货币的不成功实验是基于欧洲货币联盟作为一种货币的不成熟特性。此外，我们还澄清了平行货币或竞争性货币的概念的缺陷。1999年欧洲货币联盟启动后，国际货币在调整过程或功能上的不对称性将消失。但我们指出，参与国产业结构的不对称性可能会使欧洲货币联盟容易受到不对称的实际冲击。