Theoretical, Empirical and Historical Research on the European Monetary System, European Currency Unit and European Monetary Union

井泽写了三篇论文。首先，他对1992年和1993年的欧洲货币危机进行了博弈论和实证分析。他在1997年的学术会议上提出了信号博弈模型，而不是克鲁格曼的基本面理论和奥布斯特费尔德的自我实现预期理论。然后，他在1999年1月调查了欧盟哪些国家将满足马斯特里赫特条约的五个条件并加入欧洲货币联盟。根据最近1997年的估计，几乎所有国家都有可能满足GDP的3%的一般政府赤字，但他们不太可能满足GDP的60%的一般政府债务。目前，除英国、丹麦、瑞典、希腊外，有11个国家被认为是加入欧洲货币联盟的候选国。欧盟理事会将于1998年5月决定参与国。欧洲央行的货币政策存在一些问题。最后，他估计了欧洲单一货币（欧元）对国际货币体系的影响。从长远来看，欧元可能成为第二种国际货币。藤田从国际货币理论和国际货币体系理论的角度对EMS和ECU进行了研究。在环境管理体系方面，我们阐明了环境管理体系自20世纪80年代中期以来由对称向不对称转变的原因及其影响。在欧洲货币单位方面，我们澄清了私人欧洲货币单位作为欧洲单一货币的失败实验是基于欧洲货币单位作为货币的不成熟特征。此外，我们还澄清了平行货币或竞争性货币概念的缺点。1999年欧洲货币联盟成立后，国际货币在调整过程或功能上的不对称性将消失。但我们指出，参与国产业结构的不对称性可能使欧洲货币联盟容易受到不对称实际冲击的影响。

Izawa wrote three papers. First of all, he analyzed game-theoretically and empirically the european currency crises in 1992 and 1993. Instead of fundamentals theory by Krugman and self-fulfillling expectation theory by Obstfeld, he presented a signalling game model at an academic conference in 1997. Then, he investigated which countries of EU would satisfy five conditions of Maastricht Treaty and participate in EMU in January 1999. Based on recent 1997 estimates, almost all countries are likely to sarisfy 3% general government deficit of GDP,but they are not likely to satisfy 60% general government debt of GDP.At present, 11 countries except U.K., Denmark, Sweden and Greece are regard as good candidates of EMU.The EU Council will decide participation countries in May 1998. There are some issues on monetary policy of European Central Bank. Lastly, he estimated the effect of the european single currency (euro) on international monetary system. Euro may become a second international currency in the long run.Fujita made researches on the EMS and the ECU from the viewpoints of theories of international currency and international monetary system. On the EMS,we clarified the reasons and its implications of the fact that the EMS has changed from a symmetrical system into an asymmetrical system since mid-1980's. On the ECU,we clarified that the unsuccessful experiment of the private ECU being the single european currency is based on the immature characteristic of the ECU as a currency. Also we clarified the drawbacks of the idea of parallel currency or competitive currencies. After the EMU starts in 1999 the asymmetries in adjustment process or functions of an international currency will disappear. But we pointed out that the asymmetries in the industrial structures of participating countries may make the EMU vulnerable to the asymmetric real shocks.