A Study on the Application of Baysian Approach to the Route Guidance System Planning

点击翻译按钮获取中文摘要

The purpose of this study is to make the influence which route choice behaivior by driver gives the network flow in route guidance clear. We made route choice behavior model to compose from the link travel time estimate model, the route change model and the route choice model. The link travel time estimate model corrects probability distribution about the travel time using Baysian approach. The route change model gives the opportunity of the route reconsideration and the route choice model decides a change into the new route from the present plan route.Using developed route choice behavior model, it executed the simulation of route guidance system for the city place in Kobe City. It did the simulation when not implementing route guidance to fix a parameter and it compared link traffic volume with the observation value. As a result, in spite of the dealing with the peak time, the link traffic volumes suited observation values. The simulation result when implementing route guidance showed a thing with the low reliability of the traffic information by the assumed route guidance system. However, if making add this traffic information to the data of the judgment for route choice behavior, the induction car never became disadvantageous. This is the result by which the possibility to cancel the problem when an induction car is increased is suggestive.