Theory and Empirical Study on the Mechanism of the Determination of Real Exchange Rate

实际汇率决定机制的理论与实证研究

• 批准号: 09630015
• 负责人: NARITA Junji
• 金额: $ 1.34万
• 依托单位: Aoyama Gakuin University
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1997
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1997 至 1998
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-09630015/
• 关键词: exchange rate; real exchange rate.; tradable and non-tradable goods; monetary policy; de-regulation; differences of domestic and foreign price; 購買力平価説; アジア通貨危機

The following three studies were wade by us :(1) Study about the productivity gap between tradable and non-tradable industries and the real exchange rate.With a special note on the gap of productivity between the tradable and non-tradable industries of Japan and the U.S., analysis was wade on the trend of the real exchange rate.(2) Monetary policy of Japan and Korea and its correlation to currency exchange rateExistence of a reverse correlation in the growth rate of money supply in Japan and Korea was identified, and its mechanism was clarified. This may be explained as follows : Korea has traditionally linked its currency won to dollar. As the volume of export from Japan is reduced (increased) due to stronger (weaker) yen, export of Korean goods in competition with those in Japan increases (decreases) and the Korean economy turns better (worse). Freedom of capital mobility increased for Korea in 1990's and Korea is believed to be in need to tighten or relax money supply for stabilization of macroeconomy.(3) Macroeconomic impact of de-regulation on the differences of domestic and foreign pricesAnalysis was made as to how much de-regulation might reduce the differences of Japanese prices and the U.S.prices. The relative prices of non-tradable goods against tradable goods in its narrow definition such as wachinery have become higher in such fields as construction, real estate, and transportation, while they have become smaller in trend in such fields as finance or insurance. In order to estimate the impact of the price differences of Japan and the U.S.as de-regulation further proceeds in Japan to the extent of the U.S., quantitative analyses were wade with some assumptions. The result indicates that the macroeconomic effect of the de-regulation is not sosignificant enough as to attribute lack of the de-regulation as the main cause of the price differences between Japan and the U.S.

我们进行了以下三项研究：（1）关于贸易和非贸易产业生产率差距与真实的汇率的研究。特别注意日本和美国贸易和非贸易产业生产率的差距，对真实的汇率的趋势进行了分析。(2)日本和韩国的货币政策及其与汇率的相关性确认了日本和韩国的货币供应量增长率存在反向相关性，并阐明了其机制。这可以解释如下：韩国传统上将其货币韩元与美元挂钩。由于日元升值（贬值），日本的出口量减少（增加），与日本竞争的韩国商品出口增加（减少），韩国经济好转（恶化）。90年代韩国资本流动的自由度提高，人们认为韩国需要收紧或放松货币供应以稳定宏观经济。(3)放松管制对国内外价格差异的宏观经济影响分析了放松管制对日本和美国价格差异的缩小程度。在建筑、真实的房地产、交通运输等领域，非贸易品相对于狭义的贸易品（如工资）的相对价格上升，而在金融、保险等领域，非贸易品相对于狭义的贸易品的相对价格则有下降的趋势。为了估计日本价格差异的影响，以及U.S.as放松管制在日本进一步进行到美国的程度，定量分析是在一些假设下进行的。结果表明，放松管制的宏观经济效应还不够显著，不足以将放松管制的不足视为日美价格差异的主要原因