An Empirical Study by Delphi Method on the Present and Future of Rrivate Firms Damaged by Hanshin Big Earthquake.

1995年1月17日黎明前发生的阪神浅路地区大地震给地区经济造成了巨大损失，损失总额超过10万亿日元。私营企业的损失是严重的。除了对人力资源和设备造成损害外，他们还不得不在较长时间内暂停活动。这些私营企业不能要求政府和地方当局直接支持重建利益和援助。本研究于1996年4月开始，1998年3月结束，其主要特点之一是采用德尔菲法进行问卷调查。科研组在科南大学发生事故后，从1995年春天开始对企业和经营的损失进行了调查。当时，大学的建筑和设备被完全摧毁。问卷调查的对象仅限于雇用科南大学毕业生的企业。这是因为收集企业内部的详细信息对该调查至关重要。1995年9月，向在灾区至少有一个营业地点的3000家公司发出了第一份调查表，得到了369多家公司的有效答复。这个回收率达到了12.3%，作为这类问卷的回收率是非常高的。这是一个适用企业认识到问卷调查重要性的结果。我们认为案例研究的社会需求得到了肯定。本研究于1996年获得科研资助，并得以对问卷调查结果进行详细分析。第一份调查问卷于1996年秋季进行。在此之后，对第一次问卷调查的369家公司进行了第二次问卷调查。第二次问卷调查于1997年完成，并于1998年2月公布。通过两次问卷调查，预测阪神地区企业的未来变化。详细的分析工作目前正在进行中。兵库县、神户工商会等也在研究期间进行了多次问卷调查。但是，他们是更狭隘的调查，他们的结果与这项研究不同。与他们的比较将包含在问卷调查结果的最终分析中。少

The earthquake that hit Hanshin Awaji area on January 17,1995 before daylight gave an area economy big damage, and the damage total amount exceeded 10 trillion yen. The damage of the private enterprise was serious. In addition to the damage toward the human resources and the equipment, they had to suspened their activities for longer period. These private enterprises couldn't ask government and a local authority for the direct support of the reconstruction benefit and the assistance.One of the main characteristics of this research, which started in April 1996 and ended in March 1998, is questionnaire surveys the Delphi Method. Our research team started the investigation related to the damage of the enterprise and the management from 1995-year spring right after suffering in the Konan University. At that time, the buildings and equipment of the university were completely destructed. The object of the questionnaire survey was limited to the enterprises that employ Konan University gradua … More tes. This is because collecting detailed information inside the enterprise is critical to this survey.In September 1995 the 1st questionnaire was sent to 3,000 companies that had at least one business site in the suffering area, and it got an effective answer more than 369 companies. This collection rate met 12.3%, and it was a very high collection rate as a questionnaire of this kind. This is the result that an applicable enterprise recognized the importance of the questionnaire survey. We think that the social need of the case research was confirmed.Science research subsidy was granted for this research in 1996, and it made possible detailed analysis of the result of the questionnaire survey. The 1st questionnaire total was organized for 1996 years in autumn. After that, the 2nd questionnaire survey was done targeting an enterprise 369 companies that replied to the 1st questionnaire survey. The 2nd questionnaire survey total was done in 1997, and reported in February 1998.A future change in the enterprise of Hanshin area is predicted from two questionnaire surveys. Detailed analysis work is progressing at present. Hyogo Prefecture, the Kobe Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and so on did several questionnsire surveys during the period of this research, too. But, they are more narrowly focused surveys, and their results are different from this research. Comparison with them will be contained in the final analysis of the result of questionnaire survey. Less