An Empirical Study by Delphi Method on the Present and Future of Rrivate Firms Damaged by Hanshin Big Earthquake.

1995年1月17日凌晨发生在坂神淡路地区的大地震给当地经济造成了巨大损失，损失总额超过10万亿日元。私营企业受损严重。除了对人力资源和设备的破坏外，他们不得不暂停更长时间的活动。本研究的主要特点之一是采用德尔菲法进行问卷调查，研究于1996年4月开始，1998年3月结束。我们的研究小组从1995年春天在甲南大学遭受损失后开始了与企业和管理有关的调查。当时，大学的建筑物和设备被完全摧毁。问卷调查的对象仅限于雇用甲南大学毕业生的企业。 关于我们 tes. 1995年9月，第一次问卷调查向在灾区至少有一个营业场所的3,000家企业发出，得到有效回答的企业超过369家。这个回收率达到了12.3%，作为这种问卷的回收率非常高。这是一个适用企业认识到问卷调查的重要性的结果。我们认为，个案研究的社会需求得到了证实，1996年为这项研究提供了科研资助，这使得对问卷调查结果的详细分析成为可能。1996年秋季组织了第一次问卷调查。之后，针对回答第一次问卷调查的369家企业进行了第二次问卷调查。第二次问卷调查于1997年完成，并于1998年2月报告。通过两次问卷调查预测了坂神地区企业的未来变化。详细的分析工作目前正在进行中。兵库县、科比商工会议所等也在本研究期间进行了多次问卷调查。但是，他们是更狭隘的调查，他们的结果与这项研究不同。在问卷调查结果的最后分析中将包含与它们的比较。少

The earthquake that hit Hanshin Awaji area on January 17,1995 before daylight gave an area economy big damage, and the damage total amount exceeded 10 trillion yen. The damage of the private enterprise was serious. In addition to the damage toward the human resources and the equipment, they had to suspened their activities for longer period. These private enterprises couldn't ask government and a local authority for the direct support of the reconstruction benefit and the assistance.One of the main characteristics of this research, which started in April 1996 and ended in March 1998, is questionnaire surveys the Delphi Method. Our research team started the investigation related to the damage of the enterprise and the management from 1995-year spring right after suffering in the Konan University. At that time, the buildings and equipment of the university were completely destructed. The object of the questionnaire survey was limited to the enterprises that employ Konan University gradua … More tes. This is because collecting detailed information inside the enterprise is critical to this survey.In September 1995 the 1st questionnaire was sent to 3,000 companies that had at least one business site in the suffering area, and it got an effective answer more than 369 companies. This collection rate met 12.3%, and it was a very high collection rate as a questionnaire of this kind. This is the result that an applicable enterprise recognized the importance of the questionnaire survey. We think that the social need of the case research was confirmed.Science research subsidy was granted for this research in 1996, and it made possible detailed analysis of the result of the questionnaire survey. The 1st questionnaire total was organized for 1996 years in autumn. After that, the 2nd questionnaire survey was done targeting an enterprise 369 companies that replied to the 1st questionnaire survey. The 2nd questionnaire survey total was done in 1997, and reported in February 1998.A future change in the enterprise of Hanshin area is predicted from two questionnaire surveys. Detailed analysis work is progressing at present. Hyogo Prefecture, the Kobe Chamber of Commerce and Industry, and so on did several questionnsire surveys during the period of this research, too. But, they are more narrowly focused surveys, and their results are different from this research. Comparison with them will be contained in the final analysis of the result of questionnaire survey. Less