Analysis of Intended Social Change by Rational Choice Theory

本文运用博弈论模型对一些社会变革案例进行了分析，探讨了社会变革成败的决定机制。然后我们得到以下结果：预期的社会变革始于变革主体在社会中引入制度。然后，在某些情况下，引入制度会产生多重的社会结果。如果这些多重社会结果中的一些导致了预期的社会变革的成功，而另一些导致了预期的社会变革的失败，那么总有可能预期的社会变革失败。这是因为变革推动者无法预测预期的社会变革的成功或失败，即使它知道有失败的可能性。这是社会变革失败的原因之一。通过以上分析可以清楚地看到，焦点行为体之间的信任会影响预期社会变革的结果，但它们之间的关系并不像以下命题那么简单：行为体之间的信任水平越高，预期社会变革成功的可能性就越大。因此，我们建立了一个信任模型和一个具有社会网络效应的信任模型，其中焦点行为者嵌入其中。通过对这些模型的分析，我们得到以下结果：如果行为人之间不存在社会网络，受托人总是会产生被受托人背叛的可能性；然而，如果行为人之间存在社会网络，并且受托人不是短视的，那么受托人就可以毫不犹豫地信任受托人。这些结果表明，社会网络对预期社会变革的成功或失败有很大的影响。

We analyzed some cases of intended social change with game theoretic models and studied the mechanism that determines success of failure of intended social change. Then we got the following results : Intended social change begins with the introduction of institutions by the change agent in society. Then the introduced institutions cause multiple social results in some cases. If some of such multiple social results lead to success of the intended social change while others lead to failure of the intended social change, there is always a possibility that the intended social change fails. This is because the change agent cannot predict success or failure of the intended social change, even though it knows there is a possibility of failure. This is one reason intended social change fails.It has become clear during the above analysis that trust among focal actors influences the results of intended social change, but the relationship between them is not so simple as the following proposition : The higher level of trust among actors increases the probability of success of intended social change. We, therefore, build a model of trust and a model of trust with effects of social networks in which the focal actors are embedded. We got the following results by analyzing these models : If there is not a social network among the actors, trustors always incur possibility of being betrayd by the trustee ; If there is a social network among the actors and the trustee is not myopic, however, the trustors can trust the trustee without hesitation. These results suggest that social networks have great influence on success or failure of intended social change.