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Analysis of Intended Social Change by Rational Choice Theory

用理性选择理论分析预期的社会变革

基本信息

批准号：
08610171
负责人：
SATO Yoshimichi
金额：
$ 0.83万
依托单位：
Tohoku University
依托单位国家：
日本
项目类别：
Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
财政年份：
1996
资助国家：
日本
起止时间：
1996 至 1997
项目状态：
已结题

来源：
https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-08610171/
关键词：
intended social change social network trust social planning social movement 合理的選択理論ゲーム理論

项目摘要

We analyzed some cases of intended social change with game theoretic models and studied the mechanism that determines success of failure of intended social change. Then we got the following results : Intended social change begins with the introduction of institutions by the change agent in society. Then the introduced institutions cause multiple social results in some cases. If some of such multiple social results lead to success of the intended social change while others lead to failure of the intended social change, there is always a possibility that the intended social change fails. This is because the change agent cannot predict success or failure of the intended social change, even though it knows there is a possibility of failure. This is one reason intended social change fails.It has become clear during the above analysis that trust among focal actors influences the results of intended social change, but the relationship between them is not so simple as the following proposition : The higher level of trust among actors increases the probability of success of intended social change. We, therefore, build a model of trust and a model of trust with effects of social networks in which the focal actors are embedded. We got the following results by analyzing these models : If there is not a social network among the actors, trustors always incur possibility of being betrayd by the trustee ; If there is a social network among the actors and the trustee is not myopic, however, the trustors can trust the trustee without hesitation. These results suggest that social networks have great influence on success or failure of intended social change.

我们用博弈论模型分析了一些有意的社会变革的案例，研究了决定有意的社会变革成功或失败的机制。然后我们得到以下结果：预期的社会变革始于社会变革推动者引入制度。那么引入的制度在某些情况下会造成多重社会后果。如果这些多重社会结果中的一些导致预期的社会变革成功，而另一些则导致预期的社会变革失败，那么预期的社会变革总是有失败的可能性。这是因为变革推动者无法预测预期社会变革的成功或失败，即使它知道存在失败的可能性。这是有意的社会变革失败的原因之一。在上述分析中已经清楚地看出，焦点行为体之间的信任会影响有意的社会变革的结果，但它们之间的关系并不像下面的命题那么简单：行为体之间较高的信任水平增加了有意的社会变革成功的可能性。因此，我们建立了一个信任模型和一个具有嵌入焦点参与者的社交网络影响的信任模型。通过分析这些模型，我们得到以下结果：如果行为者之间没有社交网络，委托人总是有被受托人背叛的可能性；然而，如果行为者之间存在社交网络，并且受托人不近视，那么委托人就可以毫不犹豫地信任受托人。这些结果表明，社交网络对预期社会变革的成功或失败有很大影响。