Analysis of Intended Social Change by Rational Choice Theory

本文运用博弈论模型分析了意向性社会变革的案例，探讨了意向性社会变革成败的决定机制。由此我们得出以下结论：预期的社会变革始于社会变革主体引入制度。在某些情况下，引入的制度会产生多重的社会后果。如果这些多重社会结果中的一些导致了预期的社会变革的成功，而另一些导致了预期的社会变革的失败，那么预期的社会变革总是有可能失败。这是因为变革的推动者无法预测预期的社会变革的成功或失败，即使它知道有失败的可能性。通过以上分析可以看出，焦点行动者之间的信任会影响预期社会变革的结果，但它们之间的关系并不像下面的命题那么简单：行动者之间的信任水平越高，预期社会变革成功的概率就越大。因此，我们建立了一个信任模型和一个信任模型的社交网络的影响，其中的焦点行动者嵌入。通过对这些模型的分析，我们得到了以下结论：如果行为人之间没有社会网络，信任者总是有被信任者背叛的可能;但是如果行为人之间有社会网络，并且信任者不是短视的，那么信任者会毫不犹豫地信任者。这些结果表明，社交网络对预期的社会变革的成败有很大的影响。

We analyzed some cases of intended social change with game theoretic models and studied the mechanism that determines success of failure of intended social change. Then we got the following results : Intended social change begins with the introduction of institutions by the change agent in society. Then the introduced institutions cause multiple social results in some cases. If some of such multiple social results lead to success of the intended social change while others lead to failure of the intended social change, there is always a possibility that the intended social change fails. This is because the change agent cannot predict success or failure of the intended social change, even though it knows there is a possibility of failure. This is one reason intended social change fails.It has become clear during the above analysis that trust among focal actors influences the results of intended social change, but the relationship between them is not so simple as the following proposition : The higher level of trust among actors increases the probability of success of intended social change. We, therefore, build a model of trust and a model of trust with effects of social networks in which the focal actors are embedded. We got the following results by analyzing these models : If there is not a social network among the actors, trustors always incur possibility of being betrayd by the trustee ; If there is a social network among the actors and the trustee is not myopic, however, the trustors can trust the trustee without hesitation. These results suggest that social networks have great influence on success or failure of intended social change.