Study into the Fluctuations of Foreign Exchanges under the Managed Currency System, especially, the Flexible Exchange Rate System

本研究的目的首先是分析20世纪30年代建立的有管理汇率制度下的长期汇率波动因素和70年代建立的浮动汇率制度下的中期汇率波动因素，其次是解释20世纪80年代以广场协议为界的日美汇率波动的原因。分析分为三部分，即60年代、70年代和80年代。关于第一个时代。到目前为止，布雷顿森林体系的崩溃一直被解释为国际货币美元的危机，但这只是一个机会，而不是根本原因。这项研究明确了美元危机现象背后的经济实体是购买力平价的运动，它对固定汇率和国际货币基金组织平价的通胀偏离最终摧毁了布雷顿森林体系本身。关于第二个纪元。自1973年浮动汇率制问世以来，有许多追随者期望其自动平衡国际收支机制。给出了客观条件，并从理论上证明了其误差点。进一步分析了货币当局干预外汇市场的原因及其弊端。在第三个纪元。20世纪80年代前半期里根第一任政府时期的美元高汇率和后半期里根第二任政府时期的美元低汇率给美国带来了许多不良影响和重要教训。阐明了对日经济战略从里根、布什等共和党政府时期减少第二产业产品（以汽车为代表）向克林顿等民主党政府时期增加第一产业产品（以农产品为代表）转变的过程和原因。

Purposes of this study are, first, to analyse the factors of long-term fluctuations of foreign exchange rates under the managed currency system established in the 1930s and of middle-term fluctuations of those under the flexible exchange rate system established in the 1970s, second, to explain the causes of the fluctuations of exchanges between Japan and America in the 1980s bounded by the PLAZA ACCORD. Analyzes are separated into three parts, namely 1960s, 70s and 80s.On the first era. Up to this time, collapse of the Bretton Woods System has been explained as the crisis of dollar, the international currency, but it is merely an opportunity, not the fundamental cause. This study made it clear that the economic entity behind the phenomenon of the dollar crisis was the movement of the Purchasing Power Parity, and that its inflative deviation from both the fixed exchange rate and IMF parity destroyed the Bretton Woods System itself after all.On the second era. Since the advent of the flexible exchange rate system in 1973, there are many adherents who expect its automatic mechanism of balance of payments. We showed the objective conditions, and proved its error points thoretically. Further, we showed the factor why the monetary authority intervened in the foreign exchange market and the evils of intervention.On the third era. America was given both many ill effects and significant lessons by the high rates of dollar under the first Reagan administration in the first half of 1980s, and the low rates of dollar under the second Reagan administration in the latter half of 1980s. We clarified the process and reasons of the transformation of the economic strategy with Japan, from that of decreasing the products of secondary industry (represented by cars) under the Republican administration by Mr. Reagan and Mr. Bush into that of incresing the products of primary industry (represented by agricultural produce) under the Democratic administration by Mr. Clinton.