Evaluation of Future Changes of Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Runoff Discharge due to Global Warming

全球变暖导致的降水量、蒸散量和径流流量的未来变化评估

• 批准号: 08650610
• 负责人: HASHINO Michio
• 金额: $ 1.41万
• 依托单位: The University of Tokushima
• 依托单位国家: 日本
• 项目类别: Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C)
• 财政年份: 1996
• 资助国家: 日本
• 起止时间: 1996 至 1998
• 项目状态: 已结题
• 来源: https://kaken.nii.ac.jp/grant/KAKENHI-PROJECT-08650610/
• 关键词: gloval warming; fluctuation of rainfall; first passage probability; reservoir; drought; rainfall interception by forest; transpiration

The global warming phenomenon has become of major interest in recent years. The objective of this study is to cvaluate the effects of the global warming on precipitation, evapotranspiration, runoff discharge, and develope nume-rical analysis methods useful for establishment of reservoir operating policies for drought.Taking account of monthly air temperature, nonstationary time-series models for long-term fluctuation of rainfall characteristics : the occurrance number and rainfall amount of one storm cluster. A streamflow sequence is considered as a filtered point process whose input is a daily raifall sequence. As a pulse-response function for a filtered point process, a tank model, called the model of 3-tanks with a parallel tank is developed. Thus, a streamflow sequence and its cumulants arc able to be derived from a daily rainfall sequence. By using the transition probability matrix of reservoir storage, the first passage probability of drought storage and the probability distribution of the first passage time for a reservoir to the drought state are formulated and demonstrated for actual reservoirs.As in forested watersheds interception evaporation is related to the flood alleviation function of forests, and both of interception and transpiration are closely related to the drought alleviation function of forests, a method of sepa-rately estimating daily interception evaporation and transpiration from annual evapotranspiration is proposed, and some runoff simulations are performed to evaluate the effects of changes of temperature related to interception and transpiration, precipitation, and forest on runoff discharge.

近年来，全球变暖现象已成为人们关注的焦点。本文旨在探讨全球气候变暖对降水、蒸散、径流的影响，并为制定水库抗旱调度政策提供数值分析方法。本文考虑月气温，建立了降雨特征长期波动的非平稳时间序列模型：一个暴雨团的发生次数和降雨量。本文将径流序列看作是一个滤点过程，其输入为日降雨序列。作为滤波点过程的脉冲响应函数，建立了一种水箱模型，称为3水箱与平行水箱模型。这样，就可以从日降雨量序列中导出径流量序列及其累积量。利用水库蓄水的转移概率矩阵，对实际水库进行了干旱蓄水的首次通过概率和水库到达干旱状态的首次通过时间的概率分布的推导和论证，由于森林流域的截留蒸发与森林的防洪功能有关，截留和蒸腾与森林的抗旱功能密切相关，提出了由年蒸散量分别估算日截留蒸发量和日蒸腾量的方法，通过径流模拟，分析了温度变化、降雨、林冠等因素对径流的影响。

项目成果

S.Yue, M.Hashino and Y.Nagura: "Stochastic response of daily runoff based on a filtered point process" Jour.of Hydroscience and Hyraulic Engineering. Vol.14, No.2. 67-69 (1996)

S.Yue、M.Hashino 和 Y.Nagura：“基于过滤点过程的日径流随机响应”水科学与水利工程杂志。

Alfiansyah Yulianur BC, H.Yoshida and M.Hashino: "Esitimation of Precipitation, Evaporation and Transpiration Using GMS Data" Proc.of 11th Congress of APD-IAHR. Vol.1. 1-10 (1998)

Alfiansyah Yulianur BC、H.Yoshida 和 M.Hashino：“使用 GMS 数据估算降水、蒸发和蒸腾”Proc.of 第 11 届 APD-IAHR 大会。

吉田弘,端野道夫,越智一直: "数理モデルによる土壌水分と飽差が蒸散抑制に及ぼす影響の解析" 水工学論文集. Vol.41. (印刷中) (1997)

Hiroshi Yoshida、Michio Hanno、Kazunao Ochi：“利用数学模型分析土壤湿度和饱和度差异对蒸腾抑制的影响”，水利工程学报，第 41 卷（出版中）（1997 年）。

Sheng Yue and Michio Hashino: "Numerical analysis of storage probability distribution and first passage probability in a reservoir with correlated inflows" Proc.of Int.Conf.on Water Resour.& Environment Research. Vol.I. 451-458 (1996)

盛越和桥野道雄：“具有相关流入量的水库中存储概率分布和首次通过概率的数值分析”Proc.of Int.Conf.on Water Resour。

A.Yulianur, H.Yoshida and Michio Hashino: "Estimation of daily rainfall using GMS-IR data" Proc.of Int.Conf.on Water Resour.& Environment Research. Vol.II. 689-695 (1996)

A.Yulianur、H.Yoshida 和 Michio Hashino：“使用 GMS-IR 数据估算每日降雨量”Proc.of Int.Conf.on Water Resour。